Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 251138
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN INVERTED SFC RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY JUST E OF THE CWA WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY W TO JUST W OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CWA AS A RESULT OF WAA TO
THE W OF THE RIDGE. THOSE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
MORNING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR MORE
MODERATED IN TEMPERATURE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID 50S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 20S...COLDEST INLAND. SHOULD SEE MIN RH VALUES OF
20-30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10MPH SO FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. RIDGING/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THRU HUDSON BAY DURING
THE WEEKEND WILL REDEVELOP W TO THE ROCKIES AND THEN PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY THRU MON...FOLLOWED BY NEW SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING FROM CNTRL CANADA TO TX DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
THAT WILL DRIFT E THRU LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR DRY
WEATHER HERE WITH NO CHANCE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO REACH UPPER MI
DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. AS FOR TEMPS...SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY THRU MON WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N WHERE GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. PREVIOUSLY...IT APPEARED WARMING WOULD THEN OCCUR
THRU MID AND LATE WEEK...BUT TRENDS NOTED 24HRS AGO IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAVE HELD. THAT TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM RIDGE
MIDWEEK TO BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND THUS FORCE SHARPER NW FLOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AT LEAST FOR A TIME DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY WARMING AND RESULT IN A DAY OR TWO OF BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. COULD BE CHILLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WED WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS WEEKEND. A LITTLE FARTHER
DOWN THE ROAD BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD THAT ENDS FRI...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AND A TASTE OF SUMMER FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...SUNDAY MAY 3 IN PARTICULAR.

SUN/MON...THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER
LAKES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OFF THE LAKE ON SUN...SUN WILL
BE COLDER THAN MON. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR NO HIGHER
THAN THE LOWER 40S AT BEST WITH MOST LAKESIDE LOCATIONS FROM THE
KEWEENAW EASTWARD NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 30S. SLIGHT WARMING WILL
OCCUR MON AS GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...
ESTIMATED MIXING HEIGHTS ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS SUN
AROUND 50F...THEN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON MON. IT APPEARS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BROADENING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE
CONUS/SE CANADA WILL SEND CLOUDS S AND SW INTO THE UPPER LAKES
SUN/MON. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
N AND E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SOME PERIODS OF BKN CLOUD COVER...MAYBE
EVEN OVC...SEEM PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS MON NIGHT. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...THIS
WAVE WILL BEGIN DIVING MORE TO THE S ONCE IT REACHES THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. SINCE THE 00Z/24APR RUN...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT PCPN LATER TUE
INTO WED. GFS/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF...FCST WILL REFLECT SCHC POPS SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN INTO WED. ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO DIVE S AND SE...RE-ESTABLISHING A TROF IN
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN STATES FOR WED/THU AND RESULTING IN BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR A DAY OR TWO. WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SIGNIFICANT THE COOLING WILL BE FOR WED/THU...A
RETURN OF NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MEAN CHILLY CONDITIONS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...WED IN PARTICULAR. WELL IN THE INTERIOR...HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 50S WED AND AROUND 60F THU.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING AS SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E. AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH
WELL INTO THE 60S TO PERHAPS NEAR 70F ON FRI.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST...BUT JUST KEPT SKY AT
FEW030 FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE
WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KTS. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR WHERE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



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