Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 160837
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
437 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VERY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER SFC AND UPPER RIDGING.
THE DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD HAS MIXED TO DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AND WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S SFC RH
VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS AS WELL.

OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS /FROM A SSE WIND/ TONIGHT...RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR WITH MAX RH VALUES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE
OVER THESE AREAS. INLAND...MAX RH VALUES WILL ONLY BE 60-85 PERCENT.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE ON PATTERN BUT NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IS
OBSERVED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...BUT THE AIRMASS BELOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY. THINK THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING WITH
THE WAVE AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT INTERIOR W HALF AND IN THE 30S INTERIOR E.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BEGINNING FRI...MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC UPPER JET MAX STREAKING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA.
DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV AND UPPER DIV IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET
APPEAR TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH INTO ONTARIO WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER MI. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
60S AWAY FROM LAKE MODERATION...PERHAPS EVEN REACHING 70F IN A FEW
SPOTS AS INTERIOR RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PCT KEEPING FIRE WX A
CONCERN. WEST WINDS COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY LATE IN THE DAY BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BLO 15 MPH.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI
NIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. WITH THE HIGH ENDING
UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTN...IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KEWEENAW EASTWARD. RIGHT
ALONG THE SHORE...TEMPS PROBABLY WON`T GET OUT OF THE 30S. FOR THE
INTERIOR W HALF...TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60F UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

SUN/MON...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HANDLING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SRN ROCKIES ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF THE TROF AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FIRST SURGE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOC
WITH LEAD ENERGY LIFTING NORTH FROM REMNANTS OF SRN ROCKIES CLOSED
LOW AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORT
RAIN MOVING INTO FCST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND MAIN SURGE OF PCPN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MID-LVL TROF FM
THE PLAINS TAKES ON A NEG-TILT WHILE ROTATING EAST TOWARD THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY. INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF
ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONV WILL SUPPORT THIS SECOND SURGE OF
PCPN. AIR MASS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING
WITH THE RAIN OVER THE W ON MON. PTYPE WILL THEN BECOME ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA MON NIGHT FOR WHATEVER PCPN LINGERS.

TUE/WED...LARGE/COLD MID-LEVEL LOW IS FCST TO BE CENTERED IN THE
VCNTY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT/SPRING DAYTIME
HEATING AND POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU THE AREA WITHIN
THE LARGE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SUGGEST AT LEAST SCT SHOWERY
PCPN BOTH DAYS....MOSTLY IN FORM OF SNOW BUT MIXING WITH RAIN AS
WELL DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTN INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL BE BEST. HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST SCNTRL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME THICKENING HI/MID CLDS LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE UPR LKS...LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC HI PRES RDG WL BRING CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
STRONGER S WINDS ABOVE LIGHTER GROUND LVL WINDS WITHIN A NEAR SFC
STABLE LYR CAUSED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ALLOW FOR SOME LLWS AT THE
SITES EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT WINDS WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY BY SUNRISE...
ENDING THE LLWS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO THE
ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINLY
LOOKING AT A FEW BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF
LOW-END ADVISORIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT MELTING OF ANY REMAINING
SNOW PACK AND REDUCE RIVER LEVELS. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS
HYDROLOGY...TITUS



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