Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 010523
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL 500MB LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL LINGER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM IA NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO PUSH IN AND THE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS...ALONG WITH MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO CONTINUE
THE CLOUD EROSION ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE LIGHTER WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR...WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE
U.P. FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P. WILL SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LIGHT LAKE BREEZES KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING RH VALUES
TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INLAND
WEST...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND Q-VECT DIV MOVING IN
BEHIND FRIDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROF SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TURNING ATTENTION TO SAT...THE NAM AND GFS GENERATION OF PCPN
LOOKS UNREASONABLE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY
OVERDONE....ESPECIALLY SINCE GREEN-UP HASN`T TAKEN OFF ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW SFC DWPTS UP IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S WHICH LOOK TOO HIGH. RESULT OF THE HIGHER DWPTS IS GREATER
FCST INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NAM...WHICH SUGGEST SOME SHRA
DEVELOPING ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY INTERIOR EAST HALF.
WITH DWPTS MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 30S TO LWR 40S AT BEST ON
SAT...WILL OPT TO LEAVE FCST DRY. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO MID 70S IN THE
INTERIOR...WARMEST W. UNDER WEAK PRES GRADIENT...LAKE BREEZES WILL
KEEP LAKESIDE LOCATIONS COOL IN THE AFTN.

SUN/MON...MODELS POINT TO THE LATE WEEKEND TIME FRAME AS THE BEST
CHC OF PCPN. AS WRN CANADA TROF DRIFTS EASTWARD AND SHORTWAVES MOVE
FROM THE ROCKIES/SCNTRL CANADA TO NRN ONTARIO AND WRN LAKES...A COLD
FRONT WL PASS ACROSS UPPER MI SUN NIGHT...PERHAPS ARRIVING OVER WRN
UPPER MI AS EARLY AS SUN AFTN IF 12Z GFS AND NAM SOLNS PAN OUT. WILL
FOCUS ON SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. INSTABILITY
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG AND 700-500 MB MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C
AT THAT TIME WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF SOME TSTMS
AS WELL. GIVEN AN OVERALL FASTER TREND FROM THE MODELS OVER THE LAST
DAY OR SO...FRONT WILL BE THRU THE FCST AREA BY 12Z MON...RESULTING
IN A DRY DAY MONDAY. SUN WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS FCST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. S
TO SW WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE E COOLER. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FOR MON...MOST NOTABLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MON.

WED AND THU...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NE THRU THE
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN CONUS TROF. 12Z GFS TRENDING SLOWER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAN PREV RUN SUGGESTING DRY FCST WED WITH MID-
LVL RDGG STAYING IN PLACE OVER WRN GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z ECMWF
MEANWHILE SHOWS INCREASING WAA IN RESPONSE TO INITIAL SHORTWAVE
RIPPLING THROUGH MID-LVL RDG AND BRINGS SOME SHRA INTO THE WRN FCST
AREA ON WED. WHILE THIS SOLN LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THAT MID-LVL
RDG AXIS IS STILL IN PLACE OVER REGION...FEEL OBLIGATED TO KEEP AT
LEAST LOW END CHC POPS OVER THE WEST HALF FOR NOW. THU LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL OFFER A BETTER CHC FOR SHRA AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TSRA AT LEAST
OVER WEST HALF OF CWA AS MODELS INDICATE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NNE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN 850 MB WAA NOTED OVER THE WRN CWA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER LAKES INTO
SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. THIS TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KEC


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