Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 271941
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO SRN JAMES BAY. TO THE E...A MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST EXTENDS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WRAPS SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS OF 19Z...W EDGE OF THE STRATOCU DECK
FM THIS MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW RUNS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI. CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED INTO CENTRAL UPPER
MI THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LVL AND SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES TROUGH AT
LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL MAXIMIZED DUE TO CALM WINDS UNDER AXIS OF SFC RIDGE AND PWATS
OF .25 INCH OR LESS. ELSEWHERE MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS BUT SHOW BEST Q-VECT CONV AND MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOC WITH
SHORTWAVE GENERALLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF UPPER MI. MODELS HINT
THAT PERHAPS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA COULD SEE SOME
SPRINKLES/-SHRA TUE EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH 00Z WED BUT
REFLECT EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID-LVL CLOUDS ALONG WEAK COLD-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST COULD REACH
INTO THE MID 60S...BUT DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS UNDER
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER (IN THE 50S) ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RIDGE (FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

THE FIRST WAVE AND DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...BUT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AND THE BEST MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T FEEL STRONGLY
ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS IN FOR THE LAND AREAS (KEPT OVER NRN
LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE MIGHT HAVE TO
ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERN ALBERTA) WILL DIVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AFFECTING THE
EASTERN U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ANY PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MOISTURE INDICATED
BELOW 850MB ON THE MODELS. THERE IS SOME LIFT IN THAT REGION...TIED
TO THE POCKET OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...BUT WOULDN/T
EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES. WITH THIS WAVE
LOOKING MUCH STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES OVER
THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME UPSLOPE HELP) FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...AS WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES UNDER DEEP MIXING (TO 800-750MB) AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY WEST. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND OFFSET THE LOWER RH (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) AS THE
U.P. IS IN ITS CRITICAL TIME BEFORE GREEN-UP.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT
WILL PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVES BRUSH THE AREA. TIMING THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT
IN THESE SITUATIONS...SO WILL SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEST) ASSOCIATED WITH TWO WAVES QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH ANOTHER WAVE POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS
WAVE...WHETHER IT STAYS NORTH OR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE
THEY INDICATE ENOUGH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH DAYTIME LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO MOSTLY UNDER 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. ON
TUE...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT AS THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK LOW
PRES TROF THAT PASSES TUE NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER HIGH PRES
WILL RIDGE S FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED/THU. AS
THE HIGH BEGINS RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER LAKES WED...WINDS OVER ERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20KT ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVER THE W. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES
THU INTO SAT...WIND SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 15KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.