Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 230719
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
319 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED UPR LO/
POCKET OF H5 TEMPS NEAR -30C CENTERED OVER ONTARIO TO THE SW OF
JAMES BAY DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. DEEP
MOIST CYC NW FLOW ARND THE CLOSED LO CONTINUES TO IMPACT UPR MI...
DRAWING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR /H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -12 TO -14C THAT
ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LES/ INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT HAS BEEN
NMRS SN SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN EXACERBATED OVER LAND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF SGNFT LARGER SCALE FORCING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/SN AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY TNGT AS UPR LO DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE E. TEMPS WL REMAIN
BLO NORMAL THRU THU.

TNGT...UPR LO IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE E...ALLOWING FOR SLOWLY
RISING H5 HGT/WEAKENING LLVL CYC FLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME GENERAL LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS FCST TO DOMINATE...H85 TEMPS REMAINING AS LO AS
ABOUT -13C IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME LINGERNING DEEP MSTR/NOCTURNAL
COOLING WL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LES IN THE FAVORED NW WIND SN
BELTS OVER THE ERN CWA. EXPECT UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SN ACCUM IN
THIS AREA. OVER THE W...WARMING H85 TEMPS TO ARND -10C/ LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVRN UNDER THE GREATER HGT RISES SHOULD TEND TO CAUSE
THE SN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE NW FLOW AND LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW WL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME SCT SN SHOWERS EVEN IN THAT AREA.

THU...PERSISTENT HGT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE/TENDENCY FOR THE LLVL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE ACYC AS WELL AS SOME LLVL DRYING IN THE PRESENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING WL DIMINISH THE SN SHOWERS W-E. FCST SDNGS INDICATE
THERE WL BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTN AS WELL WITH HI PRES RDG FCST
TO BLD INTO THE WRN CWA LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR W AND SCENTRAL AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH
H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH NEAR -6C ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 00Z FRI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER NEW
ENGLAND 12Z FRI. THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRI AND GETS ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH IN NEW ENGLAND ON
SAT. MOST OF THE PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT DID PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE FAR
WEST FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER AND KEPT IT DRY FOR LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES AND A RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS 12Z SUN. UPPER PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FOR 12Z MON. A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z TUE. A TROUGH IS POISED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z TUE WHICH DOES MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON WED. LOOKS DRY FOR SUN AND MON WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS A SFC FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ARE
NEARBY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD...MOIST NW FLOW OF AIR
AROUND DEEP LOW PRES IN SE CANADA OVERNIGHT EVEN THROUGH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VSBY BRIEFLY TO IFR AT IWD/CMX.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
CLOSER APPROACH OF SFC HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR UNDER LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

A FEW NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO NEAR 35KT GALES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER N AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
JAMES BAY WILL FILL LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THE JAMES BAY LOW...WILL
SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXTENDING FROM STRONG HIGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA AND GREENLAND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS


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