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000
FXUS65 KABQ 101040
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEAR TERM INVOLVE THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS WELL
AS DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST
OF THE CWFA WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING THROUGH THE
STATE. A FEW WEAK ECHOES ARE NOTED ON REGIONAL WSR-88D NETWORK...BUT
QPF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOW IS NEAR
THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST...OFFERING A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS ASSOCIATED LIFT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO
WRN NM BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT INITIAL BAND OF PCPN TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY FORMING
IN WRN NM BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SNOW LEVELS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
7000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATIONS RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS
ARE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT LIFTED INDICES WILL DROP TO -2C WITH MODEST
850-500MB LAPSE RATES. WILL INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER TO THE SW ZONES
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 5-10F TO 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FROM THE WEST TO
EAST RESPECTIVELY.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND IMPACT SRN NM FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/SPEED OF THE FEATURE...GENERALLY IN AN E/SE
COMPONENT. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE A MORE DIRECT EASTERLY COMPONENT
AND BRINGS QPF FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CWFA. NONETHELESS...THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP PCPN GRADIENT ACROSS SRN NM...AND NAILING ITS EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS TIME IS PROVING SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. HAVE DECIDED TO
USE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS...ULTIMATELY LOWERING POPS FOR LOCALES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND INCREASING VALUES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SW AND
SC MOUNTAINS...WHERE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH.
A BIT CONCERNED THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE...THUS OPTED TO LEAVE WATCH INTACT TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT
EVALUATE LATEST CONDITIONS AND MODEL PROGS. LATEST INTERNAL HPC SNOW
ACCUMULATION GRAPHIC SUGGESTS ONLY TWO OR SO INCHES WITH AREAS UP TO
FOUR INCHES IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
GRIDS BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE. THE TIMING OF THE LOW MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE SE PLAINS. BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WED NIGHT AS SLY FLOW LINGERS.
THIS STORM WILL NOT HAVE THE CONVENIENCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN
THE ERN PLAINS. SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE SE PLAINS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PCPN. MET/MAV AND GFS ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE ARE VERY WARM...HOWEVER
OPTED TO UNDERCUT THESE VALUES PER AFOREMENTIONED VARIABLES. MUCH OF
NRN NM WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY.

LONG DURATION NW FLOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
WILL OFFER WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO TRAVERSE THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IN
NRN/NE NM. STRENGTH/TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROVE DIFFICULT AS
WELL AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ATTM...APPEARS BEST FEATURE WILL ARRIVE
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN WITH LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL...READINGS
SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DPORTER

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THE EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AROUND MID DAY. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS SUGGEST
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT...IF SURFACE
WINDS CAN TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WIND SHIFT IS WEAK. SINCE THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENABLE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO
PERSIST WITH A CONTINUATION OR RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE AZ BORDER TODAY. PRECIP WILL FALL
MOSTLY AS SNOW...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH TOPS
APPROACHING 35K FT. LOOK FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME HEAVIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40 WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS INCLUDING KONM...KSRR AND KROW.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSED THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE NM BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST
TX ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE IN
THE EAST TODAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE AZ BORDER TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ALSO POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS LATE
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKS TO MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM THIS MID WEEK STORM AND MOISTURE
THAT REMAINS ON THE GROUND FROM PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEMS...HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
IN THE EAST. MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 CAN EXPECT
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...WHILE MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 SEE SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT AS THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM.

LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTS ARE SURE TO ACCOMPANY THESE TROUGHS WITH WIND SHIFTS AND
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THE TIMING OF
THESE FRONTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

EXTENDED FORECAST CHARTS INDICATE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WESTERN NM WILL
EXPERIENCE THE DRYING EFFECTS OF THIS RIDGE FIRST...THEN THE PLAINS
MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME DRYING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  43  18  41  18 /  10  10   0   5
DULCE...........................  38   7  37   9 /  20  10   0   5
CUBA............................  41  11  39  13 /  20  10   0   5
GALLUP..........................  40  15  41  15 /  20  10   0   5
EL MORRO........................  41  16  42  18 /  30  20   0   5
GRANTS..........................  43  17  44  17 /  20  20   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  44  20  45  21 /  30  30   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  51  31  54  24 /  30  40  10   0
CHAMA...........................  33   5  35   5 /  20  10   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  38  16  38  16 /  20  10   0   0
PECOS...........................  35  15  41  15 /  10  10   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  33   2  36   2 /  10  10   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  30   7  32   6 /  10  10   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   5  35   4 /  10  10   0   0
TAOS............................  37  10  38   8 /  10  10   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  41  17  42  15 /  10  10   0   5
SANTA FE........................  37  16  39  14 /  10  10   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  38  19  40  18 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  28  46  25 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  29  47  27 /  10  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  25  48  23 /  10  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  25  47  22 /  10  10   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  26  47  23 /  10  20   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  26  47  24 /  10  10   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  52  30  49  25 /  20  40  20   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  19  41  18 /  10  20   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  41  19  42  20 /  10  20   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  36  22  39  21 /  10  10   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  26  42  26 /  10  30  20   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  28  43  23 /   5  40  30   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  23  35  23 /  10  70  50   0
CAPULIN.........................  32  17  40  19 /   5   5   0   5
RATON...........................  37  11  43  12 /   5  10   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  36  17  42  16 /  10   5   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  34  20  42  24 /   5   5   5   0
ROY.............................  34  22  43  23 /   5   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  40  22  46  23 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  42  26  48  27 /   5  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  38  22  44  23 /   5   5  10   0
CLOVIS..........................  40  26  43  26 /   5  10  30   5
PORTALES........................  42  27  43  25 /   5  20  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  27  46  26 /   5  20  20   0
ROSWELL.........................  44  31  44  28 /   5  40  50   0
PICACHO.........................  46  30  42  27 /   5  50  50   0
ELK.............................  44  29  37  27 /  10  80  60   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-526.

&&

$$

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