Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 260947
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME VIRGA SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NM...IMPACTING KFMN
AND KGUP. PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
IMPACTING CENTRAL NM BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND OVER EASTERN
NM BTW 18 AND 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES...BUT DURATION MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE IN TAFS. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TRIM BACK RAINFALL DURATION AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING INCREASES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FROM KSRR TO KROW
WHERE GUSTS NEAR 35KT ARE POSSIBLE. NE NM WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO
THE W TO NW WINDS DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EDGING INTO THE
AREA IN THE AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AFT 00Z MON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  37  65  40 /  80  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  47  30  57  29 /  90  70  40  30
CUBA............................  49  33  56  33 / 100  50  40  30
GALLUP..........................  49  33  61  32 /  90  30  20  20
EL MORRO........................  43  34  53  31 / 100  40  40  30
GRANTS..........................  48  32  56  30 /  90  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  47  34  54  32 /  90  40  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  53  37  67  37 /  80  20  20  10
CHAMA...........................  43  29  51  24 / 100  80  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  38  52  34 / 100  50  40  20
PECOS...........................  47  37  46  30 /  90  60  60  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  29  48  25 / 100  80  50  10
RED RIVER.......................  40  28  34  24 / 100 100  80  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  28  36  21 /  90  90  70  20
TAOS............................  50  33  50  28 /  80  70  40  10
MORA............................  50  34  41  27 /  80  80  70  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  40  57  36 /  70  40  30  10
SANTA FE........................  47  38  52  33 /  90  50  40  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  37  56  29 /  80  40  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  44  57  39 /  90  50  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  44  59  40 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  41  60  36 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  43  60  40 /  80  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  56  40  62  35 /  80  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  53  43  61  40 /  90  30  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  58  44  61  39 /  70  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  37  49  33 /  90  60  60  10
TIJERAS.........................  49  36  52  30 /  90  50  40  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  32  50  26 /  80  50  60  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  51  35  44  30 /  80  60  80  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  40  47  34 /  80  30  60  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  42  53  36 /  60  20  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  53  37  49  31 /  80  30  60  20
CAPULIN.........................  56  35  36  30 /  90 100  80  20
RATON...........................  60  36  42  29 /  80 100  80  20
SPRINGER........................  61  38  44  31 /  60  80  80  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  34  41  28 /  70  70  70  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  39  43  33 /  60  80  80  20
ROY.............................  62  38  44  33 /  60  70  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  68  45  48  38 /  50  40  60  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  43  47  36 /  50  30  60  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  43  50  35 /  40  30  70  20
CLOVIS..........................  73  44  53  35 /  30  20  40  20
PORTALES........................  74  45  56  37 /  30  20  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  45  52  37 /  30  20  50  20
ROSWELL.........................  72  47  61  40 /  30  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  61  43  53  36 /  40  20  40  20
ELK.............................  55  40  51  33 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

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