Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271736 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY MVFR IMPACTS TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST.
CURRENT BATCH OF IFR CIGS AT KSAF ARE TRANSIENT AND IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
TODAY...BUT DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO KLVS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KTCC AS WELL. EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WINDS FORECAST AT KABQ THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 32KTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS AND A MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WIN-OUT AND
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$




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