Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 030540 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF NM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD -SHRA LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EC PLAINS AS
WELL AS THE LOWER RGV AND UPPER GILA REGION TO DIMINISH FURTHER AS
THEY DRIFT NEWD. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 15Z SUN...MAINLY CENTRAL/NW AREAS...WILL JUST
CARRY VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR DISTURBANCE
IN THE DEVELOPING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z SUN...WITH WIND-RELATED IMPACTS OF GREATEST
CONCERN. WILL INTRODUCE VC AT KGUP...KSAF AND KLVS TERMINALS GIVEN
SW-NE STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO HIGHER TERRAIN
THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MIDDAY/EARLY PM DEVELOPMENT. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. AS A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW MEXICO MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA. THE
STORM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SWATH OF SCATTERED MAINLY DRY GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREAD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NW TWO THIRDS OF NM THIS
AFTERNOON. CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING THIS MORNING AT KABQ INDICATIVE
OF DRY LOW LEVELS. STRONG OUTFLOW/DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NM TONIGHT...EXPECTING A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NM TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A ROUND OF MORE WET THAN DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM
TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TO BE
FAVORABLE.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
FORECAST TO COME ASHORE NEAR SAN DIEGO MONDAY MORNING...TRACKING
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. STRENGTHENING DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO FOCUS BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER
ROOSEVELT...CURRY AND NORTHEAST CHAVES COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN FOR MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS. WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY...PROVIDING THE
LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COLD CORE ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAKE SMALL HAIL COMMONPLACE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE/NEAR
TIMBERLINE A GOOD BET IN THE SANGRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF STARTING TO PICK UP ON A STRONGER
SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK...INITIALLY RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR NM BUT POSSIBLY DIGGING FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BECOME A PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR NORTHERN NM BY LATE IN
THE WEEK OR WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER...BEYOND
THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL CHANGES RUN TO RUN.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S
TODAY...A HEALTHY ROUND OF CONVECTION KICKED-OFF EARLY WITH DECENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. A MIX OF WET AND DRY CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE
RULE AND WILL REPEAT SUNDAY...BUT WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE IMPROVED A BIT FROM LAST
NIGHT AND WILL GENERALLY BE FAIR TO GOOD MOST AREAS.

A COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH A BAJA
LOW APPROACHING MONDAY AND MOVING OVER TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WETTING
EVENT IS LIKELY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS GET CRANKED-UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
A PACIFIC TROUGH/LOW ON APPROACH...WHICH LOOKS TO POSITION A DRY
SLOT OVER OUR AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY FRIDAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH MOVE OVERHEAD. THAT SAID...WITH RECENT
GREEN-UP AND MORE WETTING RAINS FORECAST THE LIKELIHOOD OF A RED
FLAG ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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