Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 161528 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
928 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE TO FORECAST TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES. RUIDOSO AIRPORT (KSRR) ALREADY GUSTING
TO 43 MPH AT 900 AM MDT WITH OTHER SITES IN THE AREA NEARING 30
MPH. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9 PM MDT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...601 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A DAY OF CONTRASTS IN STORE FOR TODAY. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AS A FRONT USHERS IN A CLOUD DECK OF BKN-
OVC030 OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BY MID DAY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THE DRYLINE SHOULD SET UP IN
EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF TSRA IMPACTS WITH NO
MENTION AT KTCC OR KROW . ELSEWHERE...VERY DRY AIR WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION...BUT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
MORNING AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... AND
WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN
AND EASTERN PLAINS. SOME LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE.
RAIN TURNS TO SNOW TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...WITH
CONTINUED AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FLIRT WITH THE TEXAS BORDER
TODAY WHERE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. HARD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OVER A MONTH ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
MULTI-DAY PERIOD LOOK LIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. TYPICAL
SPRING WEATHER IS ON TAP THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH MORE WIND...MILD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE INVOLVED SET OF CHANGES TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING REGARDING
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER AND WINDIER OVER NM AS WE
BECOME SITUATED IN A LARGE DRY SLOT FEATURE WRAPPING BENEATH THE
DEEP COLD CORE UPPER LOW. THE MAIN PRECIP IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WELL
NORTH INTO COLORADO AND PARTICULARLY THE FRONT RANGE. 09Z METARS
SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE DEWPOINT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH SUBZERO
VALUES IN THE NORTH AND WEST WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST. LEFT REMNANT STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE TEXAS
BORDER AS THE DRY LINE SHARPENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF A 40KT
700-500MB LAYER JET WILL SLICE THROUGH FROM CATRON COUNTY EASTWARD
THROUGH SOCORRO...LINCOLN AND TORRANCE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED WINDS AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAY SHIFT TO ADD
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR INCLUSION OF RED FLAG WARNINGS AS WELL.

COOL TEMPERATURES WITH THE VERY DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HARD FREEZES WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A MONTH IS INCREASING FOR
THE ABQ METRO SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FLOOR TONIGHT. WILL
ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. LEAVING SANTA FE OUT SINCE
TEMPS THERE HAVE BEEN BELOW FREEZING IN RECENT DAYS AND IT IS
CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING. THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR
LOCALES ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGH PLAINS THE PAST WEEK.

THE LAST CONSIDERATION FOR THIS MORNING WAS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE NORTHERN MTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE 3 TO 4 DAY PERIOD AS TROWAL DYNAMICS
ARE REALLY NO LONGER INDICATED. 2 TO 5 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE 8000 FT OR SO...MAINLY IN THE SANGRES.
THE GENERALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AND COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK
BUT DETAILS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT CROSS
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE STATE.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
STRONG JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.  WHAT AT ONE POINT LOOKED A COOL MOIST SYSTEM IS NOW
COOL AND DRY...WITH WINDS AS THE BIG STORY...THOUGH SOME WETTING
RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.

FRONT IN COLORADO DOES LOOK LIKE IT COULD MAKE A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHERN PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SO GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED.
HOWEVER...AS THE JET PROGRESSES AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ZONES TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. RECOVERIES ARE CURRENTLY POOR IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FAIR OVER PARTS OF THE EAST.  HAINES IS
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS FOR TODAY WITH GFS INDICATING VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH THE NAM NOT QUITE
SO EXTREME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A RED FLAG TODAY FOR SOUTHERN 105, 106 AND WESTERN
107 ZONES. CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE BET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AS WELL...FROM LAS VEGAS EAST. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THOSE AREAS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.  ALSO
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SOME OF THESE AREAS DID RECEIVE RECENT
WETTING RAIN...BUT WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE JET
CORE WEAKENS A BIT AND THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS BACK TO EASTERN
COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE JET WILL STILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES AND THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.  WINDS WERE INCREASED
IN THE GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WESTERLY FLOW WESTERN
ZONES AND STRONG...GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EAST AND FAVORING
THE NORTHEAST WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WILL EXTEND IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THE WEEKEND...STILL LOOKING FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN
AND MOVES TO THE EAST AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST MOST
LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST. DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. DESPITE STEADY DRYING...
ESPECIALLY WEST BY MIDWEEK...WINDS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH HAINES OF 6 VALUES ARE BACK IN
PLACE MAINLY WESTERN ZONES STARTING SUNDAY. BY MID WEEK...CRITICAL
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TO THE WEST. NO ISSUES WITH VENTILATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ524-526-539-540.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520.

&&

$$

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