Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 050018
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
618 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TRUSTED HRRR
MODEL DEPICTS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPOTTIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...COURSER MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION HANGING ON ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN LIFT
NORTHWARD. MODELS AGREE ON A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAK UP IN THE EAST. THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE STATE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
OVER ARIZONA...MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS...BUT LOCALES BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE TEXAS BORDER WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SOME HAIL. LOOK
FOR MOSTLY DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA...IS RESULTING
IN THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING-OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THROUGH 3
PM MDT...THE MOST ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
AND RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN 30 MINUTES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH PWATS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN
TERMS OF MAY PWAT CLIMATOLOGY. AT THIS POINT...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WOULD APPEAR LIMITED...BUT SOME MERGING/ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT OVER THE WATCH AREA. ELSEWHERE...THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED...THOUGH SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.

ANOTHER HEALTHY ROUND OF STORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR DEEP...PERHAPS
SEVERE..CONVECTION NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE THE SPC SHOWS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
THAT SAID...CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED
TO A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...HAIL-PRODUCING
STORMS ARE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION THOUGH
ACTUAL HAIL SIZE SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. TUESDAY WILL BE A
"COOL" DAY WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.

A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...BUT GIVEN A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNTREND IN PWATS WETTING RAINS WILL BE HARD TO COME-
BY. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...
DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE SLOSHING WESTWARD.

A COOLING TREND FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER LOW PUSHES A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOTTOMING OF THE UPPER LOW
LATER THIS WEEK AND PUSHES IT FURTHER EAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES THEN THIS FEATURE MAY BE MORE OF A WEATHER-MAKER FOR US
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA DRAWING UP PLENTIFUL MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING
ON A LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TX AND SE NM. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW MEXICO. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW/TROUGH SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY MORNING. COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAY OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
QUITE COLD FOR EARLY MAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAIN ON TRACK
BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

DRIER BUT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR
WEDNESDAY. WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHT
WARMING. MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ANY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FLOW ALOFT COULD BACK ENOUGH TO
DRAW UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN WIND. AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW HOURS
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ535>538.

&&

$$






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