Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 151129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHENING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45KT
DEVELOPING AFT 17Z WITH LCL MVFR VBSYS IN BLDU. WDLY SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY CONTDVD EWD WITH ERRATIC WINDS AND
GENLY VFR CIGS...THOUGH BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT WED APR 15 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A FEW DRY AND GUSTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
FROM AROUND ALBUQUERQUE TO SOCORRO AND FORT SUMNER BY LATE DAY. A
FEW STORMS WILL WORK OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
BY MUCH COLDER AIR THURSDAY. A SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CHURN
OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 7500 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 110 KNOT 300MB JET STREAK DIVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN IS
DEEPENING A SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. A
DRY SLOT WITHIN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER NM TODAY
AND DELIVER A ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION AT 700MB WILL
FORCE EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...WHERE KFMN
HAS LIKELY ALREADY SEEN THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO
HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WHERE SPC IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX BORDER.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY COLD TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE HARD FREEZES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. WHETHER OR
NOT WINDS CAN DECOUPLE AROUND THE ABQ METRO WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD
MIN TEMPS BECOME THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...GOING WITH MARGINAL
FREEZING TEMPS IN THE VALLEY.

DESPITE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...DETAILS ALREADY BECOME MUDDLED THURSDAY. THE NAM AND
GFS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE 700-500MB
JET AXIS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH AS WELL AS THE ORIENTATION
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE NAM IS FARTHER SOUTH/WETTER
WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER/WINDIER. AT THIS TIME WENT WITH CONSENSUS...
BUT EITHER WAY IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST BREEZY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO PEG THE H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NM/SOUTHERN CO FOR
FRIDAY. THE NAM INDICATES A DOUBLE BARREL LOW FEATURE STRETCHING
OVER NM...WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN. A TROWAL
FEATURE IS ALSO SHOWN PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN INTO
SATURDAY...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ABOVE AT LEAST
7500 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPS APPEARS IN ORDER FOR
WESTERN VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING
AND PERHAPS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW ARE ABOUT 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TODAY LOW DUE TO MODELS VARYING SOLUTIONS
OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE INCOMING UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK MOST SOLID OVER THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SPOTTY ONE TO 2 HOURS EXTENDING OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...MIDDLE RGV AND WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AREAS WHERE HIGH HAINES IS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...DROPPED THE WATCH FOR THE MID RGV DUE TO FORECAST MARGINAL
RH VALUES AND JUST NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALSO...TIMING OF
FRONT WEST OF THE RGV WOULD LEAD TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS...
/FRONT JUST REACHED FARMINGTON/ SO AGAIN MARGINAL AT BEST. ISOLATED
DRY CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT ALSO APPEARS SPOTTY FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EAST. VENT RATES EXCELLENT OVERALL TODAY.

AFTER A HARD FREEZE AT LOWER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST RETREATS IN FAVOR
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS CRANKS UP THE SOUTH TO SWLY WIND
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS...AND RESULTS IN
SOME OTHERWISE PATCHY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT AGAIN HIGHS WILL JUST BELOW TO WELL
BELOW AVERAGE...AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NOT
THE GREATEST...INCREASE SOMEWHAT. VENT RATES REMAIN EXCELLENT
THURSDAY.

UNCERTAINTY RULES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW NOW DOESN/T
EXIT NM UNTIL SATURDAY. STILL IT/S A COOLER THAN AVERAGE PATTERN
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WETTING PRECIP...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOCUSED ON THE
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST. VENT RATES MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH POCKETS OF POOR NORTH CENTRAL ON SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM
BRUSHES THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER MAJOR
UPPER LOW MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT/S LOOKING SKETCHY RIGHT
NOW.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ528-529-531-532.

&&

$$






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