Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 040530 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WX THIS
PD. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY BENEATH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT. AT LEAST ISOLD -TSRA EXPECTED FOR
THE NW THIRD/FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EAST PLAINS...PARTICULARLY
EC/SE...THROUGH 12Z MON WITH SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS RAMPING UP
THEREAFTER. OF GREATEST CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE +TSRA...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY MON AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH
SHRA/TSRA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MON PM.
FARTHER WEST...TSRA COVERAGE RAPIDLY INCREASES AFTER MIDDAY MON
WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PM ESPECIALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
RANGES. STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY NE AT 15-20KTS. DETERIORATING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE MONDAY EVENING. KJ

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVERHEAD. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK AND GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA LEAVING MOST OF NEW MEXICO DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE MOIST TODAY...WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS ARE RESULTING IN SPOTTY WETTING RAIN AT BEST.
CURRENT ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW A NORMAL DIURNAL
DOWNTREND THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY THOUGH...AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER OUR AREA. THE SLOW APPROACH
AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND MAY EVEN MAKE A
RUN TOWARD 60 MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CURRY...ROOSEVELT
AND CHAVES COUNTIES. 12Z NAM12 PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
1.00-1.25" BY LATE MONDAY...WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE
IN TERMS OF PWAT CLIMATOLOGY THERE. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LOOKING
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE FORECAST INSTABILITY...GOOD 200-300MB
DEFORMATION...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND FAVORABLE VEERING WIND
PROFILES. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS WELL...AS STORM MODE
WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
MIXED WITH MERGERS/MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ROUND TWO (OR POSSIBLY THREE) MAY BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPANDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TIME TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS. ELSEWHERE ON MON/TUE...
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS...WITH SOME HAIL LIKELY THOUGH LESS THAN ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WARM SO ANY NOTABLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO PEAKS ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM-UP...
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS A NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC LOW DROPS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN SLOWLY PULLS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN GOING INTO SATURDAY...SPREADING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS ON TRACK FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A SCATTERED CROP
OF GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERN PLAINS GETTING INTO THE MIX
AS SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT INCREASES INSTABILITY.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST INTO
ARIZONA MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL INCREASE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY WET STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM WEST TEXAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND SIGNIFICANT
WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS....PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TEXAS LINE. AS THE LOW LIFTS
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. SCATTERED WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS AND
EAST.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER NM WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM REMAINING A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST BREEZES INCREASE THURSDAY AND MORESO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN
TO MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ535>538.

&&

$$






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