Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

BATCHES OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY DRIFTING OVER NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWER BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL THEN
BEGIN POPPING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE STATE DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY BLOSSOMING INTO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NEW
MEXICO WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...HAIL...AND
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN DOWNPOURS. MOST OF THE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE LONG AFTER DRIFTING OFF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AFTERNOON BREEZES.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL DRIFT INTO THE LOWLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEXT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST PRETTY MUCH CONSISTENT WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS.
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED ROTATING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE WITH WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER /40S/ DEWPOINTS NOTED VCNTY NORTHEAST NM AT THIS
TIME. SO PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED INCREASE IN CONVECTION TODAY LOOKS
LIKE IT/S ON TRACK. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST MODELS
IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERALL ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY POPS TAPER DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY/S AND DECREASE A LITTLE
MORE SUNDAY BUT ARE NOW MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED.
ALSO INDICATED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER DEW POINTS AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WENT AHEAD WITH THIS SCENARIO IN THE
GRIDS. OTHERWISE HIGHS /AND LOWS/ WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT FORECASTING AN
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST
AREA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH AND EAST. DRIER WEATHER ANTICIPATED
RIGHT NOW FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER STORM
POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BE RATHER WET...WHILE THE
GFS ADVERTISES MORE OF A WIND BAG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY INTACT TODAY...KEEPING
A MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FIELD OVER NM. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS SAGGING
THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND SHOULD INVADE NORTHEASTERN NM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE THAT
WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DO
LITTLE TO STUNT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST AND ALL OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NM SHOULD EXCEED CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY MAY.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BENEFIT FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. BEYOND THE NORTHEAST...THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE FOUND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.

BEYOND TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DAY
BY DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT LOSES ITS DEFINITION...OPENING THE DOOR TO
WEAK DISTURBANCES FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT RISING DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH INCREASED MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SUPPORTS THIS HIGHER STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SURFACE/20FT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...AND EXCELLENT VENTILATION IS EXPECTED.

THE FOCUS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BAJA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL HOST STRONGER JET DYNAMICS WITH MORE READILY AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUBSTANTIALLY ONCE THE LOW CROSSES THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND MOVES
TOWARD NM WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION AREAS
HITTING THE NORTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
MENTIONED THAT FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW MORE AGREEABLE ON A BACK DOOR
SURFACE FRONT THAT WOULD INVADE THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF NM
MONDAY...AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THERE. AMIDST THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES...ACTUALLY FALLING BELOW AVERAGE WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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