Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 152353 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION WX CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREAT
FOR LOCALIZED MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 50KTS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED HIGH- BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS FOR THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO PARTICULARLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KONM. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS EVENING...
BEFORE PULLING UP VIRTUALLY STATIONARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER WEST...A VERY DRY AIR MASS HAD PUSHED INTO AREAS AROUND
KFMN AND KGUP. THIS DRY/STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. GOING INTO THURSDAY...STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW BETWEEN
KSLC AND KFMN WILL SAG SOUTHWARD BECOMING CENTERED NEAR KGUP BY
00Z/FRI. HOWEVER... THE VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO
THE LOW AND LIMIT PM SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE FOUR CORNER REGION
AND NEAR THE NM/CO LINE. KJ


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON TAP WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST. NOT AS MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE
HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. MODELS NOW MORE OR LESS AGREE ON THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TONIGHT...SLOWLY DRIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE NM AND CO BORDER THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH
INTO CO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL PINWHEEL AROUND SOUTHEAST CO
SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING TO THE EAST SUNDAY. SA COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL KEEP IT COOL
OVER THE EAST WITH SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ITS A RACE BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR BLASTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE DRY LINE TRYING TO HOLD ON NEAR THE TX BORDER. SHOWERS ARE
TRYING TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF HOUSE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS PM AND EVENING WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE TX BORDER. UPPER LOW OVER SE UTAH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SLOWS OVER EASTERN NM. COLDER AIR WILL MAKE ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG A NARROW STRIP NEAR
THE VALLEY FLOOR FROM CORRALES TO LOS LUNAS BUT MOST OF THE METRO
AREA SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. SANTA FE SHOULD HAVE A HARD FREEZE.
NO FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES ARE
IN EARLY MAY IN ABQ ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. ITS CERTAINLY
PRUDENT THOUGH TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT AS THE RECENT WARM
WEATHER HAS SOME PLANTS SPROUTING EARLY.

MODELS NOW ALL AGREEING ON A FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.
THIS HAS MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST...NOTABLY MUCH LESS
PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE AND MORE WIND FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. HAVE LOWERED POPS ABOUT EVERY PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHERN AREAS ARE STILL FAVORED BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT HAS
ALSO LESSENED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IN ABQ AND A HARD FREEZE IN AND AROUND
SANTA FE.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...COOLER TEMPERATURES
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TODAY WILL SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RAND
FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT SURFACE WINDS AND
MOISTURE...INCLUDING THE DISTRIBUTION OF WETTING RAIN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION OVER
THEN NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS.

WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO
BE FAIR ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH GOOD VALUES LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

UPPER LOW PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON
THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG JET CORE EXTENDING FROM THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND EAST...AHEAD OF THE LOW AND DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM EASTERN COLORADO
TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND WELL
WEST OF THE LOW WITH THE JET USHERING IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOT. THUS...CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED
FOR THURSDAY...LIMITED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES.  GFS HAS
MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THAN THE EUROPEAN...THUS STRUGGLED A BIT
WITH WIND SPEEDS. BUT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CONSIDERING
WIND AND RH...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.  GIVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURE AND HIGH HAINES OF 5 SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED.

THE UPPER LOW HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE JET CORE
WEAKENS A BIT AND THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS BACK TO EASTERN COLORADO.
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE SPREADING TO THE SOUTH
A BIT. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE DRY SLOT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE
AND MOISTURE INCREASES ALSO LOOK TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AS WELL.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
WEST ON SUNDAY AND A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE EAST.
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK. DESPITE STEADY DRYING...ESPECIALLY WEST BY
MIDWEEK...WINDS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH HIGH HAINES OF 6 VALUES ARE BACK IN PLACE MAINLY
WESTERN ZONES STARTING SUNDAY. NO ISSUES WITH VENTILATION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AS A UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES NEW MEXICO...
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
TO 45KT COULD PRODUCE LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. ISOLATED HIGH BASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...SOME DRY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS...INITIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING EAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
LIMITED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ528-529-531-532.

&&

$$







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