Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 141152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AS IT ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
WORK WITH MODEST RESIDUAL MOISTURE LINGERING FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT IMPACTED SE AREAS YESTERDAY TO PRODUCE MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
STORMS OVER WESTERN THEN CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. DRY
MICROBURSTS ARE A GOOD BET WITH ERRATIC SFC WINDS GUSTING LOCALLY
AROUND 50 MPH NEAR VIRGA. OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT
AND A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL CAUSE S AND SW SFC WINDS TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTN. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY
GUSTY TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ON PARTS OF THE E
CENTRAL AND NE PLAINS. MUCH STRONGER WINDS AND MORE DRY TS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITING INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
SLOW MOVING AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DRY CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR PLUNGES INTO THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO THIRDS...SO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION. WITH THE COLDER AIR WILL COME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
LOWLAND RAIN AND SNOW...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS...AS FORECAST
MODELS VARY THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE STORM CENTER THROUGH NEW
MEXICO. UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER AND
COLDER ONE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY
OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS NORTHWEST WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE CONTDVD...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
DRY.

HIGHS START TO COOL NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SOUTHEAST WARMS UP
CONSIDERABLY...FOR ONE DAY. THE INCOMING WX SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A
PERIOD OF WINDINESS WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT SAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
HELP SHUT DOWN THE WIND. SOME FAVORED AREAS MAY SEE CLOSE TO...IF
NOT...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY SLOT FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 SO TRIMMED POPS...AND
WITH THE FORECAST CRATERING DEW POINTS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTAB SOUTH...WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DRY CONVECTION WED
AFTERNOON.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PLUMMET FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO
THIRDS...STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY BASED ON CLIMO FOR FREEZE WATCHES
BUT TENDER VEGETATION WILL BE AFFECTED. THEREAFTER...MODELS NOT
DOING A GREAT JOB FORECASTING THE LOCATION AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW CENTER...LATEST ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER BACK IN ERN
AZ WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR LOWLAND
RAIN AND MT SNOW INCREASES AS MT TOP TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW
FREEZING. CONSENSUS IS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY EXITS SATURDAY WITH
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN MORE FUN AS ANOTHER LOW PLOWS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...DRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
WHEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO INCREASE...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DROP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING NORTHWEST NM THURSDAY. FROM THERE
IT SHOULD TRACK GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE TRACK UNCERTAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN IT MAY INTERACT WITH
MODEST LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW EXITING
INTO TX TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND THESE SHOULD
HAVE SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINTS. WINDS MAY ALSO STRENGTHEN ENOUGH LATE
IN THE DAY TO TOUCH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND GALLUP.
FURTHER...UNSTABLE HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE AZ BORDER.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IT WILL STEER THE
JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS...A POTENT LEE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD GUST IN THE 45
TO 55 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND CLINES CORNERS TO RATON PASS AND ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS...WITH PATCHIER
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN A WATCH BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY IS TRENDING DOWNWARD...AS WELL AS THE WIND SPEED FORECAST.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS SHOULD HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.  NONETHELESS...HIGH HAINES IS
EXPECTED FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.  THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
OF I-40 AND SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SHOULD FAVOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS FOR WETTING PRECIP AS IT CROSSES. WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE -4 TO -6C RANGE...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EVEN DURING THE DAY...AND IN SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS AT NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS CERTAIN
ELSEWHERE...DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
READINGS 7 TO 16 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BEFORE BEGINNING TO REBOUND
SATURDAY AND REBOUNDING IN EARNEST AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...VENTILATION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FAIR OR BETTER.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104.

&&

$$






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