Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171804 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1204 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NW
HALF OF NM THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND LOWER THIS AFTN...BUT THE MOST IMPACTFUL PERIOD FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SAT AS -RA AND
-SN EXPANDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KFMN WILL BE IMPACTED...WHILE
KGUP AND KSAF MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE BEST PRECIP.
MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC WINDS UP TO 35 KTS IMPACTS MUCH OF
EASTERN/SOUTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KTCC AND KLVS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFT 02Z BUT WILL RAMP BACK UP AFTER 16-17Z SAT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...849 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015...
.UPDATE...
EXPIRING FREEZE WARNING ACROSS MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL DELIVER MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. A
ROUND OF LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET WITHIN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS. MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF A DEEP H5 UPPER LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WILL MIGRATE
EAST ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TODAY. SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
INDICATES A COUPLE VORTICITY MAXES AND ASSOCIATED OBS OF RAIN/SNOW
OVER SW COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. 08Z SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL VERY DRY WITH READINGS
BELOW 10F ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE SHALLOW MOISTURE
ALONG THE TX BORDER IS ADVECTING EAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHANGE
THIS MORNING WAS TO RAISE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. THE 00Z
GFS AND PARTICULARLY THE WRF AND NAM SHOW AN H5 VORT MAX AND 700MB
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH A NICE BAND OF MOIST ADVECTION. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MTS WHERE 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE 06Z NAM BACKED
WAY OFF ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIP MAKES IT BUT WILL KEEP SOME
SHOWERS IN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...
LEAVING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOWERS AROUND NORTHERN NM. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY.

RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL ATTEMPT TO
INTERACT WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A DEPARTING UPPER JET ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
FOR THE SANGRES EAST ACROSS THE NE PLAINS WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN.
A WEAK RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN SLIDING QUICKLY OVER THE STATE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT ON FORCING
SEVERAL WAVES A LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS ESSENTIALLY RESULTS IN MORE WIND...COOLER TEMPS...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO EXPAND OVER NE AND PORTIONS OF
EC NM THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW ALOFT
THAT WILL PIVOT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER NW NM. A CHILLY START THIS
MORNING. PM TEMPS REMAINING A GOOD 10-20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGE CENTRAL/WEST...LITTLE COOLER EAST. AS A RESULT...NOT QUITE
AS UNSTABLE TODAY GIVEN THE COOLNESS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAINES
INDICES LOW/VERY LOW ACROSS THE WEST WITH VALUES OF 4/5 EAST. THIS
IS THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR TO WHAT OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE A SOLID
ELEVATED/CRITICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE NE/EC PLAINS. GIVEN MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY... EXCELLENT MIXING/VENTILATION
AND FINE FUEL STATUS FEEL RED FLAG WARNING JUSTIFIED NE/EC ZONES
DESPITE COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPS.  IN FACT...THE AIR MASS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS WELL BELOW ZERO OBSERVED ON THURSDAY. THIS VERY DRY AIR
WILL SPREAD FARTHER EAST AND NORTH TODAY.

CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION TODAY AGAIN FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEV OF NC/NW NM BUT PROSPECTS IMPROVE GREATLY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FOR FAR NC/NW AREAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS
IT SHIFTS INTO SE CO. ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY AREAS NEAR THE CO LINE...WITH LIGHT PRECIP
POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM TIJERAS/ABQ TO
GRANTS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY...STILL BELOW
AVERAGE AREAWIDE...BENEATH AN UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINING A
SMATTERING OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE PM.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INDICATED INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SAT INTO EARLY
SUN.  RESULTANT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BOOST PRECIP POTENTIAL ALONG
THE SANGRES AND EAST SLOPES FOR BRIEF PERIOD ON SUNDAY...OTHERWISE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY WANE WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ENERGY IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO  THE STATE. YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING NEAR OR
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY.

A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN MOST AREAS BY
WED/THU NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EAST AS THE SEASONAL DRYLINE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE.  NO
CONCERNS WITH VENTILATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
EXCELLENT VENT RATES EXPECTED. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-108.

&&

$$








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