Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 041755 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH AZ TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO CREATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TODAY. MTS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED AS SHRA AND TSRA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SCT MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND AS AREAS OF BR DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
SURGING NWWD ON A LOW LEVEL JET NOSING UP INTO SE NM. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIKELY
IMPACTING KTCC AND KROW WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50KT POSSIBLE.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO. HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOME MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL...SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED IN THESE AREAS. A RETURN TO A TYPICAL NEW MEXICO
SPRING WILL COME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAKE A COMEBACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING SOCAL THIS AM WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OVER NM ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IS ALREADY MAKING A RUN AT EASTERN NM...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S CREEPING INTO CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT...PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...QUITE MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE INHIBITION...SUGGESTING
STORMS WILL GO UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...IF NOT LATE THIS MORNING.
IN FACT...ONGOING SHOWERS MAY NEVER FULLY DISSIPATE BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND BEGINS. THAT SAID...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND THOUGHTS THIS
MORNING ARE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES GIVEN MODERATE CAPE AND 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. BUT GIVEN THAT
STORMS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY GIVEN LACK OF CIN...STORM MODE
SHOULD CHANGE INTO MORE OF A MULTI-CELL/CLUSTER LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE...THOUGH THIS STORM MODE IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHOULD STORMS FORM REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREA. LATEST NAM/HRRR PROGS SHOW A FEW STORMS OVER THE
EC PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTN...BUT SHOW MOST STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW...THEN PROPAGATING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...AND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS INTACT. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WATCH FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST GIVEN SOME RECENT PROGS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NE
HIGHLANDS...BUT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS DEEP THERE...AND STEERING
FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS MOVING...SO WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. SOME OF THESE AREAS DO HAVE LOWER FFG VALUES...
HOWEVER...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM SLIDES OVER NM ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH WILL FAVOR AREAS PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWARD. WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS DECREASING UNDER
THE TROUGH...STRONG LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS DO
NOT VEER TO THE W/SW TOO EARLY. THAT SAID...MOST STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS BY 00Z WED. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM TUESDAY...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY
EVENING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...A NORTHERN STREAM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH WILL NOT
DROP SOUTH ENOUGH TO GIVE NM A CHANCE AT MUCH PRECIP. INSTEAD...NM
WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. THUS...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SLOSHING OF THE DRYLINE HOWEVER. IF IT SLOSHES FAR ENOUGH WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON ANY PARTICULAR NIGHT...A FEW STORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
THAT HAPPENING LOOK TO BE WED OR THURS NIGHT...WITH STORMS THE
FOLLOWING AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY AFTER A
COOL TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY. FORECAST TEMPS SHOW HIGHS NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THOUGH WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING
FRI/SAT...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE PLAINS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME UNTIL
POSSIBLY FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH SWINGS FROM ARIZONA AND ACROSS NEW
MEXICO ON IT/S WAY INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SOME WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. CONVECTION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS...MAY BE FEATURED FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY...WHILE THE FOCUS
MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD ERUPT OVER THE PLAINS.

FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO BE LIFTING THE TROUGH OUT A BIT QUICKER WITH
DRIER AIR OVERTAKING SOME OF THE WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AS SOON AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHER HUMIDITIES TEND TO HANG ON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAIN FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WHILE FORECAST LOWS CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A DRIER PERIOD WITH MORE WIND REMAINS ON TAP FOR LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL PUZZLED BY THE BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME DECENT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...ALTHOUGH H7 TEMPERATURES COOL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THEN LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS/LOW RH COULD DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FORECAST...NOT ALL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AS OF YET...DESPITE A HIGH HAINES
FORECAST. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS
SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT THIS MAY TEND TO BE MORE SPECULATION
CONSIDERING THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THIS WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ535>538.

&&

$$

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