Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240536
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
24/0900 TO 24/1400UTC...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND GUSTS WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 45 KT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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