Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 020534 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED EXCEPT OVER
THE NE. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER UNTIL 09Z BUT
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SATURDAY SHOULD BE JUST AS ACTIVE IF NOT
MORE SO. WILL CARRY VCTS AT SAF...LVS AND TCC AND VCSH FOR ABQ AND
AEG SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND UP TO ONE HALF
INCH HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINES WITH A WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST INTO THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA MONDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD...AND PERHAPS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS PANNING OUT RATHER NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRES AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IN FACT...SEVERAL
STRONG STORMS JUST EAST AND WEST OF RATON AND ONE NEAR OCATE
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY BECOMING SEVERE.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE IDEA OF BRINGING A PORTION OF THE WEAK SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE
RIDGE SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SEND THE
STORMS EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM
SUGGESTS THE STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL BE
MINIMAL AT BEST AS WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE TRENDING DRIER FOR SUNDAY BUT CONTINUE
BACKING AWAY FROM THAT IDEA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
LOOKS LIKELY MOST AREAS. THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS STAND BETTER
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
NEGATIVELY TILTED FEATURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO ALL
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINNING LATE MORNING MONDAY.
BOTH NAM AND GFS LIGHT UP STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TX LINE. STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A
LARGE PORTION EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PLENTY OF
CAPE (INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE) WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR TO GET SCATTERED ORGANIZED STORMS GOING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR MAINLY THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS PROGGING AN INCH AND A HALF PLUS FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ABQ AND SF METRO AREAS WILL BE WITH OPPOSING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING....ESPECIALLY WEST AND
NORTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE SOUTHWEST STATES THE
LAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED A BIT BUT IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
ARIZONA NEW MEXICO BORDER. A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING USHERED IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND PW
VALUES INCREASED JUST A BIT AS WELL. GIVEN LARGE LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED. WETTING PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL WITH THESE
STORMS BUT COVERAGE IS A LITTLE GREATER THAN YESTERDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LASTING LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

AFTERNOON RH VALUES FELL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ZONES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THUS OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY POOR
RECOVERIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT TO THE EAST
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OFF BAJA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL WORK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TREND UP A BIT ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AND OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. VENTILATION TO BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT BOTH DAYS WITH MAINLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT BOTH DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
MONDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA BY LATE MONDAY. MOIST
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
WETTING RAIN ON MONDAY THEN ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. VENTILATION WILL
DECREASE A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY BUT VALUES
LOOK TO REMAIN GOOD OR BETTER MOST LOCATIONS.

EXTEND MODELS VARY IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT THEY ALL
DEVELOP ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THROUGH
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

05

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.