Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 222131
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WHICH COULD BRING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET. WINDS
WITH THE FRONT COULD BE QUITE GUSTY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE WEAKENED THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM A BIT...SUGGESTING
IT MAY BRIEFLY OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES BEFORE REFORMING A
CLOSED LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM AND
ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL WRING OUT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN...AND A
POTENT LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP...PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY...THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY. FRIDAYS WINDS NOW LOOK
THE STRONGEST AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING THE I-40
CORRIDOR.

THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROBABLY ALSO
PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...THIS TIME FAVORING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THE
POTENT SOUTH BOUND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0C...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE CURRENT MODEL TRACK
FAVORS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN DEPICTS A HEALTHY DOSE OF
WRAP AROUND PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IF THE
GFS IS RIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BASED ON LOOKING AT THE LATEST WIND/RH/INSTABILITY FORECASTS DECIDED
TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS ZONES. ZONE
106 OR THE LOWER/MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL AT
BEST DUE TO AREAL COVERAGE/DURATION AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
TEMPERATURE. LEFT ZONE 106 AS A WATCH RIGHT NOW BUT COULD SEE IT
CANCELLED THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES COOL SOME AND
HAINES VALUES LOOK TO BE A 4/5. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH AT THIS
TIME FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS ALMOST AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY.

SUFFICIENT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD. BETTER
MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS THE NE PLAINS DUE TO THE WIND SHIFT THAT
OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. THUS STRONGER STORMS AND SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
RAIN WILL BE FOUND THERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND SOME LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FORM.

THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT AND
INCREASE THE WINDS ALOFT. THE STRONGER WIND FLOW WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE AREA GENERATES ACROSS
THE SE PLAINS. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. THIS
WILL BE COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EASTERN
PLAINS. MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH HAINES 5/6
VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EAST AND NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL WEST. A FEW DRIER SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
DAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AS THE LOW WASHES OUT BUT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A LOT.

ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND COULD FUEL
SOME DRIER SHOWERS/STORMS FAVORING THE WESTERN HALF. EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE DOWNSLOPE WIND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
COOL AND BE BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TX STATE
LINE. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH RH
VALUES WILL HAVE MODIFIED SOME THANKS TO THE COOLING. HAINES VALUES
WILL ALSO TREND LOWER. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY/LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS.

THE AREA SHOULD DRY SOME ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND START TO IMPACT WESTERN AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND COULD PROVIDE A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TIER. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST BUT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
LONG LIVED OR LARGE IN COVERAGE.

UNSETTLED/COOL AND MOIST WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER PACIFIC LOW CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE STATE. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GFS MODEL HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE MORE BULLISH
CANADIAN/ECMWF MODEL IN TERMS OF STORM IMPACT. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
EVENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING
AROUND WELL INTO MONDAY AS IT DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL WETTING MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.

A DRIER RIDGE PATTERN IS STILL DEPICTED BY THE MODELS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. IF THE
WETTING RAIN EVENT OCCURS SUNDAY/MONDAY THEN GREENUP SHOULD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS. IT HAS STALLED SOMEWHAT
IN AREAS DUE TO THE LACK OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE. HOW LONG THE RIDGE
PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE STATE IS IN QUESTION. DOES A BAJA LOW
DEVELOP AND UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS OR DOES THE
RIDGE BREAK DOWN DUE TO A PACIFIC LOW COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TIME WILL TELL.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NE PLAINS DUE TO A FOCUS BOUNDARY AND BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
TERMINAL SITES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY TS/SH BUT WILL BE
WATCHING TCC CLOSELY. PERHAPS SOME PASSING VIRGA TYPE SH AT SAF...AEG
AND FMN. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF NM WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN HAZARD LATER TONIGHT WILL BE LOW
CLOUD POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT MVFR CIGS AT TCC BY MIDNIGHT. WENT A
LITTLE AHEAD OF GUIDANCE ON THIS TIMING. WESTERLY WIND SHOULD
LIMIT LOW CLOUDS FROM REACHING LVS TONIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. INDICATING SOME GUSTIER BREEZES KICKING IN BY LATE
MORNING THUR AT LVS/TCC.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  69  37  65 /   5  10  20  20
DULCE...........................  32  66  29  57 /  10  20  30  30
CUBA............................  35  66  34  58 /   5  10  30  30
GALLUP..........................  30  65  30  60 /   0  10  30  20
EL MORRO........................  34  60  31  57 /   0  20  40  20
GRANTS..........................  30  65  29  61 /   0  10  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  36  61  33  58 /   0  10  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  43  72  40  67 /   0  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  30  61  30  55 /  20  20  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  63  41  59 /   5  10  20  30
PECOS...........................  39  64  37  60 /   5  10  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  28  65  29  58 /  20  10  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  31  55  28  49 /  20  20  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  26  58  26  55 /  20  10  30  20
TAOS............................  31  65  32  59 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  37  63  36  59 /  10  10  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  42  70  42  62 /   5   5  20  20
SANTA FE........................  42  63  40  60 /   0   5  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  69  36  64 /   0   5  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  71  45  65 /   0   5  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  73  45  66 /   0   5  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  73  44  67 /   0   5  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  74  44  66 /   0   5  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  41  76  40  69 /   0   5  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  46  73  45  65 /   0   5  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  44  76  43  69 /   0  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  66  39  62 /   0   5  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  45  69  40  64 /   0   5  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  67  32  62 /   0   5  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  66  35  63 /   0   5  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  67  40  63 /   0   5  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  73  45  68 /   0   5  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  41  68  38  64 /   0   5  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  40  66  39  66 /  20  10  20  20
RATON...........................  36  71  35  67 /  20  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  39  71  38  66 /  20  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  37  67  37  63 /   5   5  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  46  74  47  74 /  20  10  10  10
ROY.............................  43  71  40  69 /  10  10  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  50  78  50  73 /  10   5  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  45  76  46  70 /   5   5  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  83  48  77 /  10   5  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  44  80  48  76 /   5   5  10   5
PORTALES........................  46  80  50  76 /   5   5  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  45  79  49  74 /   5   5  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  45  84  49  77 /   5   5  10   5
PICACHO.........................  46  76  46  70 /   0   5  10  10
ELK.............................  45  69  42  66 /   0   5  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106.

&&

$$

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