Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 212319 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MODERATE BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 KT ARE COMMON LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP DUE TO SO MUCH DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF NEW MEXICO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN MOST
PRONOUNCED...BUT ARE STILL REMAINING ISOLATED WITH SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PREDOMINANT THREAT. AS THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR SOME REMNANT CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
BREEZES. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THAT PART OF THE STATE. SOME GUSTY
AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SPEEDS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 25 TO 30 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST AREAS TONIGHT
KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN CROSS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND...RAIN
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FAVORING WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALONG THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...WITH A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE
ALOFT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS THE ONE THAT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
DEVELOPED WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CROSSES
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT WHILE A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM A 999 MB SURFACE LOW IN SE CO. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL YIELD
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY. GUSTS COULD PEAK NEAR 50 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO MANY AREAS
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ENE FROM GALLUP TO CLAYTON...OR
MAYBE A BIT NORTH OF THIS LINE. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL ALSO SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM READINGS SHOULD REBOUND A FEW TO 6 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OVERALL TREND WILL BE BREEZIER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FAVORING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. PRETTY GUSTY
FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF ON FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY MODERATE AFTERNOON BREEZES. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
FOR NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LESS TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY DUE TO LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH SUNDOWN THEN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE.
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING PASSED MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. WETTING RAIN IS REALLY NOT IN THE CARDS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. PERHAPS SOME VERY LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE RH VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER.

THE OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA LOW ON THURSDAY TURNING
MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THE BEST LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ORGANIZATION APPEARS TO BE LACKING. CANT RULE OUT
SOME WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF THURSDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SPORADIC LIGHTER SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY.
MODELS STILL SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION MOVING
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY MOVES BACK IN ON THURSDAY. A WEAK TO MODERATE BACK DOOR
FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WILL PROVIDE MUCH HIGHER RH VALUES ACROSS THE NE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A FEW HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF ON WEDNESDAY.

IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WATCH
ISSUANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NE HIGHLANDS/NE PLAINS AND PERHAPS EC
PLAINS BASED ON HIGHER INSTABILITY AND COUPLED LOWER RH/STRONGER
WIND. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME THOUGH. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND FAVORING THE EASTERN PLAINS
ALTHOUGH HAINES AND TEMP DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL VALUES WILL LOWER.

THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION
OF SATURDAY/SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE A BIT DEEPER
WITH THE FOLLOWING PACIFIC LOW. THUS HIGHER RH AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES. GFS SHOWS SOME WETTING
RAIN CHANCES BUT MORE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTH...ESPECIALLY NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE EXIT OF THE PACIFIC WAVE ON MONDAY
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLOWER DEPARTURE. NEXT WEEK
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
LONG RANGE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE GFS
INDICATES A DRIER/BREEZIER PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A
DRIER/WARMER PATTER WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS BREEZINESS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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