Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221124 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
524 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IFR CIGS ACROSS FAR SE NM ARE TRYING TO WORK NORTH THROUGH THE
PECOS VALLEY...BUT SUNRISE AND EVENTUAL WARMING SHOULD PREVENT CIG
IMPACTS AT KROW. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
MTS THIS AFTN...WITH STORMS MOVING ESE DURING THE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KLVS/KTCC SO NO MENTION
OF VCSH OR VCTS. OUTFLOW FROM EVENING STORMS COULD PUSH MVFR TO
IFR CLOUD DECKS INTO NE PLAINS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOWERED
CIGS AT KTCC WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT IFR AND EVEN LIFR REMAIN
POSSIBLE. KEPT PLACEHOLDER AT KLVS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR REST OF STATE DURING TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 30KTS THIS AFTN.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW STRONG IF NOT LOW END SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FIFTH TO QUARTER OF THE STATE AS
SOME MOISTURE WORKS IN THERE AND A BACK DOOR FRONT HANGS AROUND IN
TO JUST SOUTH OF THAT AREA. MOST OF THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO SHOULD SEE LESS CONVECTION THAN TUESDAY...IF ANY AT
ALL. FOR THE THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD...WHILE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED...JUST ENOUGH SHOULD ADVECT IN WITH AN APPROACHING
RATHER VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT TO GENERATE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHWEST HALF...THOUGH OVERALL RAIN AND
SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY NOT IMPRESSIVE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SERIES OF MAINLY EQUIPMENT AND SOFTWARE GLITCHES MADE FOR A SLOW
START TO GRIDS EDITING TONIGHT. THINGS COME IN BUNCHES.

BIGGEST WX CONCERN SHORT TERM TO BE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THE NE
FIFTH TO QUARTER OF THE STATE AS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE ALOFT WILL
SET UP AND MORE MOISTURE WILL BE COME AVAILABLE THERE. UPPER RIDGE
SLOWLY EXITING THE E PORTION OF THE STATE THOUGH MODELS INDICATING
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NE TOWARD EVE WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAK RIDGING TRYING TO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE STATE EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE LESS THAN WAS THE CASE
TUE AFTN.

LARGE AND DOUBLE BARRELED UPPER TROUGH OVER AND A LITTLE WEST OF S
CA WILL APPROACH NM THU...MOVING THROUGH LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT WHILE A LEE
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SE CO SFC LOW. THIS COMBO WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHERN...
EASTERN AND TO SOME DEGREE CENTRAL AREAS ON THU. SCT SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...PEAKING ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE STATE THU NIGHT...BUT LINGERING MAINLY NORTH ON FRI. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO MANY AREAS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS ENE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. LATE WEEKEND TROUGH NOW LOOKING
MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE AND DIGS FARTHER S THAN WHAT LOOKED TO BE THE
CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO WHICH MOST MODELS AGREE
ON...AT LEAST FOR NOW...MAY FAVOR EVEN GREATER PRECIP AMTS...RAIN
AND SOME LATE SEASON SNOW...ACROSS THE W...CENTRAL AND N THAN ITS
PREDECESSOR. FINGERS CROSSED.

&&

43

.FIRE WEATHER...
OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE CONVECTION. A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED INTO NE NM...AND WILL HELP
REGENERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER AND EAST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE STATE TODAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND
HIGH HAINES INDICES. BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS WILL PREVENT
ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.
THAT WILL CHANGE THURSDAY AS A BETTER ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND BRINGS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THE STRONG
AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX OUT MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...NOT TO MENTION THE REST OF THE
STATE...THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD HAINES INDICES BETWEEN 5 AND 6 COULD
LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WILL ISSUE WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA. ALSO INCLUDED
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE MARGINAL IN
THIS AREA DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HAINES INDICES
PREVENTED THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS FROM INCLUSION IN THE WATCH...BUT A
FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST TO EAST...THOUGH WETTING RAIN MAY
BE HARD TO COME BY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LINGER MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AND WHILE
WEAK RIDGING TO WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. A FAIRLY STRONG LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL HELP KEEP WINDS BREEZY TO STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES AND
HAINES INDICES AROUND 5 NOW...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
KEEPING THIS A LOWER CONFIDENCE EVENT.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE AREA. THE
REST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND DRY WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE
GFS WITH THE STORM PROGRESSION...WHICH PAINTS WETTING RAINS FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY WINDS OVER SOUTHERN NM. THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY...BUT A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NM.

EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$






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