Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 280908
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT BRINGING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED THE WARMING TREND HAD ALREADY BEGUN...
WITH 24HR TEMPERATURE CHANGE VALUES ALL POSITIVE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. DESPITE WET GROUNDS...FOG WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS LINGER AND THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED.

THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WHILE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUMP-UP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA AS THIS
RIDGE LAYS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 48HRS...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING AND PWATS
DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE BY THURSDAY. SOME WETTING
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OUT WEST WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXISTS...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SLIM WITH NO
WETTING PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED. HERE AT KABQ...HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT 80 BY THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE 80
THROUGH SUNDAY. ROSWELL IS FORECAST TO HIT 90 ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY THERE THIS CALENDAR YEAR. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE A ROUND OF LATE DAY CONVECTION THERE...WITH SOME WETTING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. WEAK WESTERLY FLOW FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH LATE DAY BUILD UPS AND TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BAJA
LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE TIMING OF A BACKDOOR FRONT ON MONDAY AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD QPF. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD BRING WETTING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF OUR
AREA...FAVORING THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER
SIGNAL. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT PRECIPITATION AND GREENUP AMONGST FUELS WILL LIMIT FIRE
DANGER AS THE WEATHER PATTERN TRENDS WARMER WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT EAST SOUTHEAST OF NM
TODAY WHILE SOME WEAKER TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT DROPS INTO THE STATE.
THIS WILL SHIFT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN THIRD
OF NM WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN WARMING...BUT STILL FALL SHORT OF
LATE APRIL AVERAGES. BREEZES WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG IN THE EASTERN PLAINS ZONES WHERE VENTILATION WILL BE BEST.
SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY SOAR WHILE LIGHT
WIND FIELDS BLANKET NM. RISING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH TO PLUMMET
TO 15 PERCENT OR BELOW IN SOME LOCALES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE WITH RISING MIXING HEIGHTS.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL INVADE THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND INSTEAD WILL ONLY OFFER A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE NORTH. A BAJA PERTURBATION
COULD THEN INTRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE TEMPERATURES
HOVER ABOVE AVERAGE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS STAY INTACT. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT COULD THEN ARRIVE INTO NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A BAJA TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST MEETS UP WITH A
BACK DOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST...REINTRODUCING MORE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND ABQ AND THE NE. GAP WINDS
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND HAVE BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT FOR ABQ.
EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LESS SURE OF FOG AND NOT CURRENTLY
CARRIED IN TAFS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING
TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BY MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN THE TAFS YET OTHER
THAN VCSH AT GUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  68  40  76  42 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  65  32  71  34 /  20  20  10   5
CUBA............................  64  34  72  40 /  20  10   5   0
GALLUP..........................  65  32  73  35 /  20  10   0   0
EL MORRO........................  60  32  69  33 /  30  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  62  31  73  36 /  20  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  60  34  68  41 /  20  10   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  72  41  77  46 /  20  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  59  27  64  32 /  20  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  38  68  45 /   5   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  58  35  67  43 /   5   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  60  26  68  32 /   5   5   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  48  27  57  31 /  10  10   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  22  61  26 /  10   5   5   5
TAOS............................  60  28  68  34 /   5   5   5   5
MORA............................  55  30  65  41 /   5   5   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  63  37  72  43 /   5   0   5   0
SANTA FE........................  60  38  69  44 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  62  34  72  41 /   5   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  43  72  48 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  44  73  49 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  39  75  44 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  43  74  48 /  10   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  38  75  43 /   5   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  64  43  73  49 /  10   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  68  40  75  47 /   5   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  37  68  45 /   5   5   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  61  36  71  42 /   5   5   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  59  30  70  35 /   5   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  33  69  41 /   5   5   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  35  67  42 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  38  72  45 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  57  34  67  44 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  56  32  67  42 /  10   5   5   0
RATON...........................  59  31  71  37 /   5   5   5   0
SPRINGER........................  60  32  72  38 /   5   5   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  32  69  39 /   5   5   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  61  38  73  46 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  60  37  70  42 /   5   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  63  40  74  48 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  64  38  73  47 /   5   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  38  75  47 /   5   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  60  37  72  44 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  62  38  73  46 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  38  74  47 /   5   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  66  39  75  45 /   5   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  61  36  71  46 /   5   5   0   0
ELK.............................  59  35  67  45 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.