Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 201737 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS A BIT AT ODDS CONCERNING SH/TS COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. BASED ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WILL GO WITH
A MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH SOME IMPACTS AT MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...SUSPECT
GUP/ABQ/AEG/SAF/LVS AND EVENTUALLY TCC WILL BE IMPACTED. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SH/TS PASSAGE.
DECIDED TO GO WITH VCSH AT THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES BUT COULD SEE
SOME LONGER PERIOD IMPACTS AT SOME LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR
ACCORDINGLY. IT APPEARS THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT SOME IMPACTS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY BREEZES AND DRY SHOWERS
DOTTING THE LANDSCAPE. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY THEN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE ONCE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z RAOBS SHOWED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING STRONG OVER
THE REGION. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THIS MOIST POOL ACROSS
A VAST AREA OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE AN EXTENSIVE DRY SLOT IS
LURKING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT HAS DONE SO
AND LIGHT GAP WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE MADE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. 00Z/06Z MODELS STILL SHOW INSTABILITY DRIVEN LATE DAY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BEGINS DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO SOCAL. WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AND TEMPERATURES WARMER FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CORE OF THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD. A
FEW LATE DAY VIRGA SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN NM BOTH DAYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS 700MB WARM ADVECTION PEAKS NEAR +8C WITH THE MOST ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.

A 100-120KT 300MB JET WILL EJECT NORTHEAST OVER NM THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF SOCAL. THIS WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE
LOW OVER SE COLORADO TO NEAR 994DM AND PROVIDE A TYPICAL BLAST OF
SPRING WINDS FOR THE AREA. A NOTABLE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE NW SIDE OF THE JET AXIS THUS INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. ITS
LOOKING MORE LIKE ONE OF THOSE UNPLEASANT VIRGA BOMB AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST.

A COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. UNSTABLE AND MOIST NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL
FAVOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MAKING IT FEEL QUITE BLUSTERY AND
COOL. CONFIDENCE ON THE PATTERN SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS EXTENDED GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE RIDGES/TROUGHS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSS THU AND FRI
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA...A LITTLE MORE SO THU THAN FRI
AS IT LOOKS CURRENTLY...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE THAT THE COUPLE OR SO
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL HAVE AVAILABLE TO CREATE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF WETTING RAIN AT LEAST AS IT LOOKS NOW. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER FEATURES EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE STATE ARE SUCH THAT DRY
SLOTS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE A GOOD PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH
SOME SPOTTY LOW END WETTING PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA...THE SANGRES
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT REACHED THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN LAST
NIGHT HAS LEAKED THROUGH SOME OF THE LOWER GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT ONLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AT MOST ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE RIO GRANDE THIS MORN. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRUSHING NE NM...MAKING THIS THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP...THOUGH MOSTLY BELOW
WETTING AMTS. THIS WILL INCLUDE A FEW STORMS. ELSEWHERE...STILL SOME
BUILD UPS A PRETTY GOOD BET ACROSS AND JUST E TO SE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED AND ACCOMPANIED IN SOME CASES
WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. VENT RATES WILL BE
MOSTLY EXCELLENT THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD FAR NE NM. AFTN
TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY VALUES...NEAR NORMAL IN
THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST.

A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NM TUE. HIGH BASED CONVECTION
WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY...BUT STILL FAVOR THE NE NM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEARLY ALL SPOTS AND ONCE AGAIN VENT RATES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY
EXCELLENT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SW WED THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AND PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE
REACHED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THU AFTN IN MID TO LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS AND TUCUMCARI...SOUTH TO THE
VICINITY OF VAUGHN AND FT SUMNER. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FRI
SHOULD BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND
HUMIDITIES UP. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WEST AND NORTH AREAS THU THROUGH
FRI...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...SUCH AS IT IS...ON THU
AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT SATURDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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