Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 060330 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
930 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS AND REMOVE THUNDER
BASED ON LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON
TRACK. NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...605 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND STILL PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF SMALL HAIL
WILL LINGER TIL 04 OR 05Z MANY SPOTS AND A FEW HOURS LONGER ACROSS
THE NW MTS...HIGHLANDS AND POSSIBLY THE NW PLATEAU. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY VERY LOCAL IFR CIGS AND LOCAL MT OBSCURATIONS MAY STILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE
FAIRLY LIKELY BETWEEN 07Z AND 15Z WED MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ZONES...MAINLY WETTER AND COLDER VALLEYS. SOME PARTIAL MT
OBSCURATION WILL ALSO STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONLY
SMALL CHANCES ELSEWHERE. DRIER AND LESS ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE EXITING THE STATE TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER
BREEZES WILL ALSO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES...CLIMBING
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS LOW
LAYER MOISTURE TRIES TO SNEAK INTO THE STATE...AND INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST. INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NEW
MEXICO...SPAWNING A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS OVER THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO LIFT AS AN OPEN WAVE...JOGGING JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...AND A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IS
WRAPPING AROUND AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS HAS STEERED THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THIS SHOULD
BE EXITING THE STATE BEFORE TOO LONG. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE ARE BEING UTILIZED BUT
FORTUNATELY SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR LONG DURATION
SEVERE CELLS. THAT BEING SAID...A FEW HAIL REPORTS AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS WERE AMONGST REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONSIDER
CANCELLING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE IS DISTRIBUTED...AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT
MAY SOON BE OVER ONCE ONGOING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH. LOOK FOR BULK OF STORMS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SOME CELLS MAY SURVIVE IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WARM UP WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...BUT A TRAILING
PERTURBATION SHOULD KEEP STORM CHANCES GOING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE DECLINING...AND TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL BE
LOWERING AS WELL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ULTIMATELY LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HAVE HELD
ONTO SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRYLINE SLOSHING WESTWARD.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO STRIP POPS OUT COMPLETELY.

BY THE DAYTIME THURSDAY THE POLAR JET WILL STEER A DEEP UPPER LOW
DOWN TO SOUTHERN CA...A FAIRLY RECENT TREND AMONGST THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...BUT IS STILL HOLDING NONETHELESS. THIS WILL KEEP
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT OVER NM WHILE USHERING SOME PERTURBED
AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST AT THE SURFACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE NAM IS INDICATING A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
INVADE NORTHEASTERN NM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
INITIATE SOME STORMS...HOWEVER THE GFS IS MUCH MORE LACKADAISICAL
WITH THIS FRONTAL PUSH. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONGER PUSH SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING.

THE WEEKEND WILL THEN SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES AND TAPERING OFF FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN CA LOW SWINGS EASTWARD AND CROSSES NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND CURRENT WET PERIOD COULD MINIMIZE
THREAT IN THOSE AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING NEW MEXICO...SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN...SOME IN THE FORM OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST.
THUS...DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH ANY WETTING RAIN LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL DEEPEN
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT
GRADIENT ALOFT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.  VENTILATION TO BE
EXCELLENT ALL ZONES.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTH AND BE CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND OVER
NEW MEXICO. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR...AND
SPEEDS WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. VENTILATION TO
BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THEN NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES NEW MEXICO WITH
THE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY MID DAY SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
JET MOVES OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. HAINES VALUES COULD REACH 6
BOTH DAYS AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF WIND AND RH COULD BE MET EACH
DAY MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ON
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
RECENT WET CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
COULD MINIMIZE THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. VENTILATION REMAINS
EXCELLENT. BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN CURRENTLY FAVOR WEST AND
NORTH ZONES ON SATURDAY.

DEPENDING THE THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK
TO INCREASE MOST LOCATIONS..AND THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE INTO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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