Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241142 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR IN AREAS OF RAIN TODAY...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY SHORT-LIVED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAF...KABQ AND KAEG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FORECAST AT KLVS...KTCC AND KROW THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT...
BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING
OVER CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A BAND
OF MODERATE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY
NORTH THROUGH VALENCIA...BERNALILLO AND SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
COUNTIES. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

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