Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 172331 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A
COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. KFMN IS THE
TERMINAL MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN RAIN/SNOW. SOME SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KFMN AS WELL. NEXT TERMINAL POTENTIALLY IMPACTED IS KGUP...THEN
KSAF. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RESURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS AT KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BAND OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8500 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR
FREEZING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...THOUGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. A WEAK WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION UP ACROSS THE AREA. A
PERIOD OF WARMER...DRIER...AND WINDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO PULL OUT OF NORTHERN
NM...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER SC COLORADO ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS IT CONTINUES LIFTING OUT...A LOBE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE S TONIGHT...DEVELOPING A PRECIP BAND OVER NW NM.
GIVEN THE NATURE OF BANDED PRECIP...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION...BUT BEST GUESS CURRENTLY
IN THE VICINITY OF FARMINGTON WEST TO CHAMA BASED ON MOST RECENT
HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS. THE REST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD
STILL SEE THEIR FAIR SHARE OF PRECIP...AND LIKELY WILL ATTAIN
HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO BE AROUND 6000 FT..BUT MOST IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE 8500 FT...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR FREEZING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM TONIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CONUS CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY AND
PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM EACH DAY...THOUGH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
TEMPER HEATING ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORY PRODUCT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL
FLOWS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEAK RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL HINDER
MOST AFTN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. THE NW FLOW TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES
TO CLIP NE NM...RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT ON THIS
FEATURE...BUT DISAGREE WHETHER MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL AIDE
AND PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND REINVIGORATE THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TUESDAY. THIS DETAIL MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS BEFORE WE
SEE CONSISTENCY.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK PEGS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TO REMAIN IN AN
ACTIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE PAST THE STATE SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRYING/WARMING/WINDY TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING BY A WETTER AND COOLER END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE NE AND EC PLAINS WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU
7 PM.  WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN...BUT
FINALLY SEEING SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES HAVE ALSO ALREADY BEEN NOTED AROUND TUCUMCARI.

ELSEWHERE...AS THE LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST-NORTHEAST...WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
NM. THIS EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER FROM
AREAS NEAR FARMINGTON AND GALLUP...EASTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST MTNS.
SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
STAY MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET. THROUGH SATURDAY...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MTNS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT...BUT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SHOULD IMPROVE GREATLY THANKS
TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST-NE... A BELT OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
IMPACT AREAS FROM FARMINGTON TOWARD ALBUQUERQUE AND CLINES CORNERS.
HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE OVER TODAYS READINGS HOWEVER...SO NO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAVE
INCREASED QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE INCREASED FORECAST WINDS
ACCORDINGLY. SHOULD BE QUITE STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HUMIDITIES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT HOWEVER. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES
DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE NOW DISAGREEING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE NEXT BACK
DOOR/REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THRU THE PLAINS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE GFS HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE FROM
YESTERDAY HOWEVER...AND HANGS UP THE FRONT ACROSS NE/EC NM. THIS
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT.

BY MID WEEK...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HANG ON TO THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST WHILE THE GFS IS QUICK TO SCOUR IT OUT WITH
A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY PATTERN RETURNING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE THE WINDIEST DAYS OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING.

NO VENTILATION ISSUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH MAINLY
EXCELLENT VENT RATES EXPECTED.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-108.

&&

$$

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