Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 021734 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION UNDERWAY...WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KAEG...KABQ...KSAF...KLVS AND
PERHAPS KTCC. HIGH CLOUD BASES AND A DRY LOWER LAYER WILL MAKE
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
TO NEAR 60 MPH. VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
FALLING TO BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL DRIFT INTO THE LOWLANDS. A MUCH WETTER
PERIOD EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM
MAY SPARK A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE ESTABLISHED TRENDS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A WETTER PERIOD TO FOLLOW MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEFORE
DRIER AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ONE INCH...FOCUSED
ALONG PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY THROUGH CHAVES AND DE BACA
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WHERE LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH ARE FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE SAME TIME. THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AS A
LARGE AREA OF IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND CAPE FORECAST...AND THIS
OUTLINED IN LATEST DAY 3 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EXITING NEW
MEXICO...ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES A DRY SLOT...WHICH BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INCOMING
STORM SYSTEM THOUGH...WHICH THIS GO-ROUND THE ECMWF HAS PLACED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN LATE NEXT WEEK...AND IS NOW SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...WHICH ADVERTISES BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A TRANSITION TO A WETTER PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE OVER THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED NM WEATHER OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN TODAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL YIELD
ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
WARMER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HUMIDITIES MAY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY ACROSS THE EC PLAINS...BUT
BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. TONIGHT...FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN...THOUGH AS GULF MOISTURE TRIES TO RETURN TO THE
PLAINS...A FEW MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THERE AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER AZ THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NM TUESDAY AFTN. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL RETURN
TO EASTERN NM WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM
AIDS IN INITIATING STORMS. ON MONDAY...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL BE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL. ON TUESDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL
TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE PERIOD...WITH ALL AREAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR INVADING BEHIND IT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM. LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
EASTERN NM...THOUGH HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT ATTM.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NW THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IN THE AFTN.

A LARGE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ATTM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACTS TO NM WILL
RESULT FROM THE DRY SLOT...THUS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LOWERING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITIES THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IF
PRECIP DEVELOPS...IT WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN MTNS.

NO VENTILATION ISSUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH
VENTILATION MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY...INTO THE FAIR OR GOOD
CATEGORY...ACROSS NORTHERN NM.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.