Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 192345 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED MAINLY HIGH BASED -SHRAS AND -TSRAS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FROM THE FAR NRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN
EAST AND SEWD THROUGH COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. NEAR MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE E...INCLUDING KTCC AND KROW. A REPEAT OF
ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONCE AGAIN FAVORING
THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. MODERATE TO
STRONG NW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON IMPACTING KGUP AND KFMN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...FORECAST MODEL
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST AS
OCCASIONAL FRONTS INVADE THE REGION. BREEZES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
MORESO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH FRIDAY POTENTIALLY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS HAVE DIMINISHED AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THEREFORE HAVE JUST CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STORMS NOTED OVER THE JEMEZ THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT FORECAST EAST WIND
INTO KABQ HAS WEAKENED PER GUIDANCE. SOME 1-3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS AS NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AND
THE OCCASIONAL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST. TIMING OF THESE
FRONTS INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME. BUT NOT
LOOKING FOR MORE THAN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. BREEZES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND MORESO THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL POSSIBLY BE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT DON/T LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY PROMISING GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFICULTY DRIVING SYSTEMS THROUGH THE DOMINANT UPPER
RIDGE...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NO
BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND
BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK...THEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL CROSS NM AT THE END OF
THE WEEK FROM THE WEST...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PRESSED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.
IT HAS COME TO REST AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WILL SPILL
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. EAST WINDS NOT LOOKING ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE NOW...10 TO 20 WITH GUSTS MAYBE TO 25 MPH NEAR THE
SUNPORT. OTHERWISE A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST COVERAGE LIKELY OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE TX BORDER. RAIN AND SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO PEAKS AND EAST SLOPES. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD
TO EXCELLENT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHEAST NM. THIS WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS AREA
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED POPS.
VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE TODAY...NEAR NORMAL IN THE WEST AND REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST.

A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NM TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN MONDAY...BUT STILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND BE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THURSDAY IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA...SOUTH TO
VAUGHN AND YESO. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY
EXCELLENT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP. SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WEST AND NORTH AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT SATURDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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