Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 050927
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN. AFTER
TODAY...MAINLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
NM AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS NOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
FLAGSTAFF. THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY PUSH EAST OF THE
TEXAS BORDER BY 12-14Z AND ALLOW FOR A SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND BEGINS. WITH STRONG FORCING AND LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION...
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY...PERHAPS BY 17Z...ALONG OR JUST EAST OF
HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH
2000 J/KG. THUS STORMS MAY INITIATE NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...BUT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO VEER TO AROUND TO THE SW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD AND DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE DRY AIR MOVING IN...PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 1 INCH...OR BETTER THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS...A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST
WITH THESE STORMS. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
THIS INCLUDES THE CLOVIS AREA WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS INTACT THROUGH 00Z AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM.

MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
COLD CORE OF THE LOW...THUS A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN. A COLD CORE FUNNEL IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A 996 MB SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SE CO WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
SOME DRY AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NW OR NC NM.

THE DRYLINE WILL SLOSH BACK WESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE A THEME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO DIVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IT
APPEARS IT MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN NM
ON SATURDAY. IF THE LOW DOES INDEED DIVE THAT FAR SOUTH...EXPECT THE
DRYLINE TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NM EACH NIGHT AND THEN MIX
BACK EASTWARD EACH DAY. WITH THAT...WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL EXIST AS LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

IT WAS A WET MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. AROUND FIVE INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE CANNON AIR FORCE BASE.
THE UPPER LOW CAUSING ALL THIS RAIN IS NOW OVER AZ. IT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY. A DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NM AND IT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY. BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
SO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON TAP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
NEAR THE TX BORDER. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AS WELL WITH
FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES HIT HARD MONDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY MAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TODAY WHILE VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
EXCELLENT.

A DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WITHIN SIX OR SEVEN DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
NEAR THE TX BORDER ON THURSDAY ALONG A POTENTIAL DRYLINE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM MAY RESULT IN A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER A SMALL AREA OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
BACK TO NM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STORM SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CO SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME DRYING AND WARMING TO THE
AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. AN ACTIVE DRY LINE MIGHT
SET UP TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS N AND E PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE TRUSTED HRRR MODELS DEPICTION OF DECREASING ACTIVITY
ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL AREAS APPEARS TO BE COMING TRUE. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
THOUGH ITS FORMATION COULD BE A BIT PATCHY DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. MODELS AGREE ON A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAK UP IN THE EAST. THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  46  71  41 /  60  50  20  10
DULCE...........................  59  39  65  35 /  70  60  40  30
CUBA............................  60  41  66  38 /  60  50  20  20
GALLUP..........................  61  39  67  34 /  50  40  10  10
EL MORRO........................  58  38  64  35 /  60  30  10  10
GRANTS..........................  62  38  68  33 /  50  30   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  60  37  67  34 /  50  20   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  69  44  74  42 /  30  10   0   5
CHAMA...........................  58  36  59  31 /  70  60  40  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  44  67  44 /  70  40  20  10
PECOS...........................  58  43  65  42 /  70  30  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  60  38  64  34 /  70  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  50  35  52  31 /  70  50  30  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  54  35  58  28 /  70  40  20  10
TAOS............................  61  38  65  34 /  60  40  20  10
MORA............................  57  42  64  39 /  70  30  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  63  45  71  43 /  60  30  10  10
SANTA FE........................  60  44  66  42 /  60  30  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  43  70  40 /  60  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  67  48  73  47 /  40  30   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  49  74  50 /  40  20   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  47  76  46 /  40  20   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  69  48  75  47 /  40  30   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  71  47  78  45 /  30  20   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  67  49  74  48 /  50  30   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  71  49  79  48 /  30  20   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  64  44  71  44 /  50  40  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  66  44  73  44 /  40  30   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  64  40  69  37 /  40  20   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  41  68  40 /  50  20   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  65  44  70  44 /  40  20   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  48  74  48 /  20  10   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  65  45  71  45 /  30  10   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  61  44  69  43 /  70  30  10  10
RATON...........................  64  42  72  40 /  70  20   5  10
SPRINGER........................  65  44  74  41 /  60  20   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  61  44  69  39 /  60  20   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  64  47  79  48 /  80  30   5   5
ROY.............................  64  46  73  44 /  60  20   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  70  52  79  50 /  60  20   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  70  50  78  48 /  60  20   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  72  53  81  51 /  70  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  71  49  78  51 /  70  20   0  10
PORTALES........................  72  51  79  52 /  70  20   0  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  72  51  80  51 /  60  20   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  79  51  84  50 /  30  10   0   5
PICACHO.........................  73  49  79  49 /  30  10   0   5
ELK.............................  68  47  74  47 /  30  10   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ535>538.

&&

$$

34






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