Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 300004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND
IMPACTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL
LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THUS AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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