Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 301743
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AND MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE NORTH...SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS ALSO PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD END BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND SOME STORMS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. ACROSS THE WEST...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER...PRODUCING LITTLE RAIN BUT GUSTY
OUTFLOWS INSTEAD. CLEARING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING HIGH
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT THU APR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE PLATEAUING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN COOLING TO BELOW AVERAGE NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SPARKING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL. OTHERWISE...A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST. EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING GREATER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING WARMER TODAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
COOL DOWN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE WEAK FRONT
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT/FRIDAY...GUIDANCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THERE ON FRIDAY AREN/T MUCH COOLER...IF AT ALL. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE POPS DRIFT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TODAY
FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS...WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THAN INDICATED
24 HRS AGO. DEW POINTS CRATER ENOUGH IN PARTS OF THE WEST FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONVECTION.

POPS FRIDAY MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. MODELS STILL HITTING ON THE
GILA FOR SOME MEASURABLE BUT LOOKING SPOTTY AT BEST AND THINK THERE
MAY BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY CONVECTION OUT THERE. POPS SHOULD TAPER
DOWN A BIT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THEN RAMP UP MONDAY AND MORESO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROF/LOW APPROACH NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST.
RIGHT NOW BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SPREAD OVER THE NORTH AND EAST
TUESDAY. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WETTER BUT NOT AS SOGGY AS THE GFS.
SOME DRYING NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE TROF EXITS THEN A BUSIER PATTERN
COULD PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP
STRONG WINDS DISPLACED FROM NM. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY 3 TO 10
DEGREES TODAY AND FRIDAY. RISING MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL ALSO YIELD BETTER VENTILATION RATES TODAY
AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WITH HEIGHT THAT WILL HELP SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT SOME DRY CELLS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN
LATE TODAY.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SKIRT THE NM-CO BORDER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO FUEL MORE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY...BUT DRIER AIR BELOW CLOUD BASES
COULD KEEP A MIX OF DRY/WET STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THUS...HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL THEN FLATTEN AND SUCCUMB TO WEAK DISTURBANCES
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING MID LEVEL
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A SUBTLE
COOLING BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SURFACE/20FT WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

INTO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWINGS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION EVENT
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES THAT WILL SEE THE BEST
JUXTAPOSITION OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BELOW AVERAGE WITH SURFACE HUMIDITY
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY...ULTIMATELY PRECLUDING ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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