Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 242340
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$






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