Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 162325 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO TX/OK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WIND WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT AND IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KFMN AND KGUP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING. AS MOISTURE WORKS SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE STARVED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOVING THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST
ALONG THE RATON/BARTLETT/JOHNSON MESAS EAST TO CLAYTON. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO THE LOW FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY TONIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO FREEZING OR
BELOW IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. UPGRADED FREEZE
WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PROVIDING THE BEST
TIME-FRAME FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW AND WEST-
CENTRAL AREAS. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NRN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH NRN NM ON A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONTS DROP SWD DOWN THE PLAINS
BOTH DAYS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NE
PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON....AND TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TX LINE DURING THE
EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL FINALLY
DEVELOP AND COMBINE WITH NRN STREAM TROUGHS DROPPING IN FROM THE
N-NW ALONG THE WEST COAST. OCEAN SURFACE WATERS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HAVE FINALLY REACHED A POINT WHERE DEEP TROPICAL
CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE COMMON...WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONGER
SOUTHERN STREAM AND THE BREAK DOWN OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING HAS BEEN DISAPPOINTINGLY
DRY...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT A CHANGE TO WETTER CONDITIONS
MAY GET UNDERWAY TOWARD MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...BUT SHOULD INCH EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY SLOT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUNCH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM THRU THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...STRONG S TO SW WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...AFTER TODAYS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM...ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW RETREATING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NE NM TONIGHT...WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. VIRGA AND ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FOR THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT/JET STREAK PUNCHES IN. POOR TO FAIR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS.
FREEZING TEMPS ARE EVEN LIKELY FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO EASTERN CO. STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HAVE INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS ACCORDINGLY. DESPITE MARGINALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO TODAY...IN FACT NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE
OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 104 AND 108. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN ZONE 104...PROVIDED THAT PRECIP
THIS AFTN/TONIGHT IS NOT HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ZONE 108 WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE... SOME MEAGER WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. WETTING
PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BETTER HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH REMAINING FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND NE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
STRONGER JET OF NW WINDS WILL BISECT THE STATE FROM NW TO SE.
THUS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH HUMIDITIES
WILL INCREASE...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOOSE ITS GRIP ON THE STATE ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE IN.  OVERALL...MUCH
LESS WIND EXPECTED...THOUGH SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AS THE
FRONT BACKS UP TO THE MTNS. A WEAKER UPSTREAM TROUGH MAY BRING MORE
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO THE STATE...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT. ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKS LIKE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TO THE WEST BY MID WEEK...WITH AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST.

EXCELLENT VENTILATION LOOKS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ104-108.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ524-526-539-540.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ519-520.

&&

$$

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