Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 231757 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE STATE EARLY TODAY AND WILL PEAK BTWN
21Z AND 01Z. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WHERE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AROUND KLVS. FARTHER WEST...MAINLY DRY
AND GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE RGV VALLEY TONIGHT. THICK MID LVL CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED MOST AREAS CENTRAL/WEST BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT ONCE AGAIN. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$





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