Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 061146 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. BEST
CHANCES GUP AND SAF. OVERALL LESS ACTIVE TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA AND -TSRA IN THE NW THIRD OF NM...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...ALONG WITH BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS. BREEZY
TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN. GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT AT LVS AND TCC. WINDS DIMINISH AND NEARLY ALL
PRECIP TO END DURING THE EVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECT TO RETURN
AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS
READINGS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW
STORMS MAY PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER DAY IN STORE AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM AZ LATE
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT SHOULD
PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...TEMPS SHOULD WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A 996 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER SE CO.
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DRYLINE SLOSH BACK WESTWARD. GFS
IS THE MOST BULLISH AT BREAKING OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS
CURRY/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...SO HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLD POPS IN THE FCST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

MORE DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NM ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER CALI. WEAK DIFFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
OVERALL WILL BE A QUIET BUT BREEZY DAY.

MODELS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL GO. THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS PREDICTED BY THE GFS IS NOT QUITE
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST EC AND CANADIAN. BASED ON THESE MODELS...THE CENTER OF THE
LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER AZ...SKIRT THE 4 CORNERS...AND MOVE EAST
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE NAM THRU 84 HOURS SUGGESTS A TRACK THAT
IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...THE
DRYLINE MAY NOT SLOSH AS FAR WESTWARD THURS AND FRI NIGHTS...AND
WILL QUICKLY MIX EASTWARD DURING THE DAYS WITH STRONG AND DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THUS...LIMITING THE TSTM
THREAT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR THE DRYLINE
PUSHING FURTHER WEST EACH NIGHT AND IT ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NE MOVING IN THURS NIGHT...WHICH
MAY BE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT EITHER THURS NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE... BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW/TROUGH...SHOULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON SATURDAY AS
THE LOW PASSES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS.

BEHIND THE LOW...A BAGGY TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN SYSTEM WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS.  THUS...A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEARLY AREAWIDE. MONDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...PULLING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. SHOULD THAT OCCUR...OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY A PART IN MORE
STORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IF THE EC IS RIGHT...A SHARP TROUGH
WILL ALSO AID BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE AND RESULTING IN MORE TSTMS
WEDNESDAY.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THIS CURRENT WET PERIOD SHOULD
HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT IN THOSE AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO CO AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE REPLACES THE LOW. THUS...DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH WETTING RAIN LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CO...COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TUESDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP 20 TO 40 PERCENT. VENTILATION
WILL  BE EXCELLENT IN ALL ZONES. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY GOOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE
TO THE SOUTH AND BE CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OVER NEW
MEXICO AS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR...BUT
SPEEDS WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS THOSE TODAY. VENTILATION TO BE
MOSTLY EXCELLENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARILY
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. A STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG THE TX BORDER OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE UP TO
15 PERCENT LOWER.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO
WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED JET WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY. CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS OF WIND AND RH COULD BE MET EACH DAY FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS...MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
ON FRIDAY...AND EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE RECENT
WET CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE CRITICAL FIRE THREAT. ALSO...WHILE HIGH HAINES VALUES
ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEY DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE
EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY EXCELLENT. THE BEST CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN FAVOR WEST AND
NORTH ZONES ON SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW CENTER TO OUR
NORTHEAST SUNDAY WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
WARMING WILL BE LIMITED TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WHILE A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACTUALLY BRINGS SOME COOLING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO INCREASE AT MOST LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL. A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTH ON MONDAY WHILE A DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
WITH POTENTIAL STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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