Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181158
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR MAJORITY OF FCST AREA...EXCEPTIONS
BEING THIS MORN FROM THE GENERAL VCNTY OF THE NW PLATEAU ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MTS...WHERE A COMBO OF PATCHY FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY -SN WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND....MORE LOCALLY...
VSBY. MOST IMPACTED TAF SITES WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FMN
AND SAF. EVEN MORE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED LIFR CIGS
POSS THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z IN THIS AREA. MT OBSCURATIONS TO BE
COMMON. AFTER PRECIP ENDS FROM W TO E BETWEEN MID AND LATE MORN
CIGS SHOULD RISE ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS AND EVEN BECOME SCT AT TIMES
EXCEPT OVER MTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO MARKEDLY INCREASE THIS
AFTN...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35KTS AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING COLORADO WILL BRING COOLER
AND BREEZY WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES
OF WEAK COLD FRONTS FLIRTING WITH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH LATE AFTERNOON BREEZES. MORE TYPICAL SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WINDS REALLY CRANK UP AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER VORT FEATURE
OVER NORTHERN NM IS IMPACTING THE AREA FROM FARMINGTON TO THE JEMEZ
MOUNTAINS AND SANTA FE THIS MORNING. OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM THE JEMEZ TO SANTA FE AS SHORT-TERM HRRR/RAP AND 06Z
NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING DIRECTLY OVER THOSE AREAS...AND
REPORTS ALREADY INDICATE 1-2 INCHES WITH THE FIRST ROUND FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING. MOST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED
ROAD SURFACES HOWEVER WITH 1-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES POSSIBLE FROM LOS
ALAMOS TO SANTA FE WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. AREAS WITHIN THE
JEMEZ ARE ALREADY SEEING IMPACTS PER NMROADS...AND THIS WILL ONLY
GET WORSE WITH THE NEXT BATCH.

OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THE CURRENT UPPER
LOW EXITING COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSTABLE AND MOIST NW
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO VALLEY AND
HIGH PLAINS LOCALES DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT MOST ACTIVITY WILL
BE DRY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE BELOW NORMAL THEN GRADUALLY
TREND WARMER EACH DAY. THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST PLANS WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK NW FLOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW THRU
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS FLIRT WITH THE AREA. A POTENTIAL
WETTING PRECIP EVENT MAY TAKE SHAPE OVER THAT AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY.

MORE TYPICAL MID/LATE APRIL WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN DURING THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD AS A 555DM H5 LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
WIND MAX OVER THE STATE. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE WOULD FAVOR WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THIS AFTN MAY PRODUCE SOME NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FIRE WX ZONE 108. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW HALF OF THE FCST AREA THU AFTN AND ACROSS
THE EAST FRI AFTN.

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE TODAY AREA WIDE AND STILL
LINGER ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF FCST AREA SUN. THEREAFTER MOST
LOCALES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
THROUGH THU BEFORE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING ARRIVES FRI.

TODAY SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP...MORE SNOW THAN RAIN AT LEAST THIS
MORN...AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 5500 TO
6000 FEET THROUGH MID MORN BEFORE RISING AT LEAST 2000 TO 3000 FEET
BY THIS AFTN. LOOKS LIKE SOME SPOTTY ADDITIONAL 1 TO NEARLY 4 INCH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY STILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORN...BY FAR THE
GREATER AMTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS AFTN WILL TRANSITION TO
SOME HIGHER BASED AND QUITE SPOTTY DAYTIME HEATING AIDED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A VERY FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MOST NOT PRODUCING ENOUGH
PRECIP TO REACH WETTING LVLS. MOST LOCALES TODAY WILL SEE HIGHER
MINIMUM RH LVLS...LARGELY DUE TO THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH JUST A
FEW HOURS OF WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. SHOULD BE QUITE STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HUMIDITIES NEAR TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT HOWEVER. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND FOR A LITTLE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS STILL DISAGREEING NOTABLY ON ARRIVAL TIME AND PROGRESSION OF
NEXT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. NAM IS THE FASTEST
WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND GFS STILL THE SLOWEST.
THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MID WEEK...THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN LINGER SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST WHILE THE
GFS IS EASES IT FARTHER EAST WITH A DRY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
PATTERN RETURNING. THU AND FRI LOOK TO BE THE WINDIEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK WITH...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING.

NO VENTILATION ISSUES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH MAINLY EXCELLENT VENT RATES EXPECTED...BUT BEHIND THE
BACK DOOR FRONT TUE AND WED RATES MAY LOWER CONSIDERABLY.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ511-518.

&&

$$







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