Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 271815 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 215 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE SHOWS 2 SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OF INTEREST...THE FIRST ALREADY APPROACHING THE CWA IS SITUATED OVER SW VA AND NW NC WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH 18Z. THE 2ND ONE LAGS BACK TO THE NW OVER OHIO. SKIES HAVE BEEN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY THUS FAR...BUT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACRS NRN VA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO EARLY AFTN. TIMING OF THE 2ND SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES LATER TODAY IS A BIT SLOWER...PROGGED BY A MODEL CONSENSUS TO BE OVER ERN WV AND CENTRAL VA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS...THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE ONLY SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. WILL SCALE BACK ON ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN/GENLY AFTER 20Z TO 21Z AS THE 2ND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW (KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO 20%). EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY CWA- WIDE BY EARLY AFTN...POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW HRS ACRS THE N AND NE. HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK...MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...LOWER 60S ON THE ERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY NE. LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.) HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...VSBL STLT SHOWED INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH BASES OF 5 TO 8K FT. A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BLD IN FM THE WNW TODAY THRU TUE...WHILE STRONG LO PRES OVR THE NRN ATLC SLOWLY MOVES E. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NW OR N WINDS LATER TODAY INTO TUE AFTN...WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TNGT...WITH SEAS BLDNG TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AFTN THRU WED NGT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES UP THE CST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.