Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 050554 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 154 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HI PRES CNTRD OFF THE MID ATLC CST WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TNGT. UNDER A CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FLATTENED HI PRES REMAINS ACRS THE CAROLINAS DURING TUE...WITH THE CNTR OF THE HI WELL E OVR THE ATLC. TO THE N...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWRD TO NEAR THE MASON-DIXON BY 00Z WED. SOME POOLING MOISTURE AND VERTICAL MOTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM OVR NRN THIRD OF THE REGION LATE TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVENG. THUS...HAVE 20%-30% POPS IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AS SSW WINDS HELP HI TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS (20%-40%) WILL CONTINUE OVR NRN/NE COUNTIES TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED MORNG...DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE/LIFT SLIDING ESE ALNG BACKDOOR FRONT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NGT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. WED THRU THU...THAT FRONT WILL DROP INTO VA BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHILE WEAK HI PRES BLDS IN BEHIND IT...THEN SLIDES OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST. AT THE SAME TIME...LO PRES WILL LIFT NWRD OFF THE FL AND SE CST. HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIFT ALNG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAY TRIGGER ISLTD TO SCTD SHOWERS OR TSTMS...MAINLY OVR WRN AND NRN COUNTIES WED AFTN INTO WED EVENG. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY ON THU WITH A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR SRN/SW COUNTIES. NE OR E WINDS WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD HIGHLY DEPENDENT PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST, AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL PROGRESS OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND INITIAL SLOW DRIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE HURRICANE CENTER IS CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE FOR POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. SFC RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND W-NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FORCE THE LOW TO MEANDER AROUND A POSITION ALONG/JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES BOTH CONTINUE TO TAKE THE LOW INLAND ALONG THE SC/GA COAST, AS DOES THE NEW 12Z/04 GFS. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN, MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. A SOLUTION TOWARDS THE GFS REMAINS THE HPC PREFERENCE, AND HV EDGED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO WOULD YIELD SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POP FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/T-STORMS AT MOST ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SFC RIDGING IN PLACE NORTH OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED LOW POPS (20-30%) WITH THE (SUBTROPICAL?) LOW STILL MEANDERING TO THE E-SE. OTHER HEADLINE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. E-SE FLOW WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FAVOR WARM HIGHS IN THE 80S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. EARLY MORNING LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NE STATES. GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY SWLY WINDS...GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 KT. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING. MIXING AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEGS WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL. FOR TODAY...COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SWLY WINDS 10-15 KT CONTINUE WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY...DROPPING SWD TOWARD THE NRN LOCAL AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT AT KSBY AND KRIC...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT KSBY. OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. LATE IN THE WEEK...PATCHY FOG WILL BE PSBL AROUND SUNRISE.
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&& .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT S-SW FLOW 10-15KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN W/SFC HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED ALONG/OFF THE NC COAST. WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEND SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. STILL APPEARS AS IF THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BY TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE TOO INFREQUENT/MARGINAL TO RAISE ANY HEADLINES IN THE BAY AS MIXING WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL (VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS). SEAS IN NRN COASTAL WATERS 3-4 FT...2-3 FT FARTHER SOUTH. GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT ON TUE...THEN INCREASES TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS IN BACKDOOR FASHION. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. COMBINED WITH PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO THE E/NE THU WITH TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A GFS WEIGHTED GFS/CMC SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. WHILE LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASE IN SEAS FOR LATER THU INTO FRI...CURRENT TRACK OF SFC LOW STAYS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS AND WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND ANY LINGERING COASTAL FLOOD THREATS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...SAM MARINE...MAM

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