Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011959 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SSE TO SE VA AND ERN NC. DRY...BUT MUCH COOLER DAY THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES AVG IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WELL INLAND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S. DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS MAINLY IN THE 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SE VA AND ERN NC...EXPECT COLDEST TEMPERATURES TO RESIDE E OF I-95. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER-MID 30S FOR INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC...MID 30S TO AROUND 40 F ELSEWHERE. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADSY FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED THE GROWING SEASON AS OF TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST...AND CHESAPEAKE/VA BEACH. LEFT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON- BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROMNW TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKY AND THE WINDS ARE RELAXING AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...WILL SEE VFR CONDITONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. OUTLOOK...THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CONDTIONS...ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... UPDATE...SCA EXTENDED FOR SRN CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL 1 PM DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KT. ALSO EXTENDED SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS AT 5 FT. WILL MONITOR DOWNWARD TRENDS TO SEE IF ANOTHER EXTENSION IS NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT. SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG. && .CLIMATE... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST HAS BEEN RECORDED AS 74 DEGREES. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017- 031-032. VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD/SAM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...BMD/TMG CLIMATE...

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