Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270102 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 902 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE SE COAST...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER SC. WHILE PARENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CANADA...JUST ENOUGH NW CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SFC RIDGE TO EXTEND INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A NICER AFTN THAN ANTICIPATED...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NOW COVER MOST OF THE REGION...ONLY NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA ZONES NEAR THE NC BORDER REMAIN CLOUDY. LITTLE TO NOTHING ON THE RADAR...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP IN NE NC THROUGH 22Z...OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY EVENING WILL AVG IN THE LOW 60S OVER INTERIOR NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA...TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC. ONLY CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL FOG DUE TO WET GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES. SINCE SOME DRYING HAS PREVAILED THIS AFTN...AND WITH SFC DEW PTS NOW FALLING INTO THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BE PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS AT ALL. ALSO...NOT REALLY AN IDEAL PRESSURE PATTERN FOR FOG AS SFC HIGH DOES NOT BUILD OVER THE AREA AND SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40-45 F RANGE...BUT SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON NIGHT. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST TO U60S TO AROUND 70 F INLAND. INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON WED AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...THOUGH BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND POPS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WED...WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS IN THE AFTN SW...DRY NE. HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S SW TO AROUND 70 F ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.) HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR N TO S WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT TONIGHT. DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 03-06Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE WOULD LIMIT FOG. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST FOG EXCEPT AT ECG. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AT SBY MONDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MAY PRODUCE PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. IFR CONDS ARE PSBL.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...JDM

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