Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 040554 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 154 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WK HI PRES SFC-ALOFT TO RMN INVOF CSTL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NGT. ANOTHER MILD NGT...W/ LGT WNDS MNLY FM THE SSW. LO TEMPS FM L/M50S IN RURAL LOCATIONS...U50S TO ARND 60F IN THE METRO AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU MID WEEK. MODELS DVLP A LEE TROF MON AFTRN BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FA AS AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY CAPPED. SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY DVLP MON AFTRN. MSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. HIGHS L-M80S XCPT M-U70S COASTAL AREAS...65-70 AT THE BEACHES. MSTLY CLR MON NIGHT. LOWS 55-60. ALMOST THE SAME SETUP FOR TUE AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE APPRCHG TROF TO THE NORTH SAGS A BIT FRTHR SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN GET. KEPT FCST DRY THRU 00Z WED. ANTHR WARM DAY WITH LCL SEA BREEZES DVLPNG. HIGHS 80-85 XCPT 75-80 COASTAL AREAS...ARND 70 AT THE BEACHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING SE ALONG THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TUE NIGHT. NAM/GFS PROGG ONE SUCH SYSTM TO TRACK ACROSS THE VA NRN NECK / LWR MD ERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL INDICATE LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TYPE OF EVENT. OTW... MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS U50S-L60S. SFC TROF OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRNTL BNDRY APPRCHS FROM THE NW WED WITH BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTRN / EVE ACROSS NWRN TWO THIRDS OF FA. WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S...XCPT M70S CSTL AREAS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WASHES OUT OVER SRN PORTIONS THURSDAY. A SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM (SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK). DETAILS OF THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW ARE UNCERTAIN BUT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOW AND ITS IMPACT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM WITH POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...MAINLY OVER SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT THURSDAY BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RANGE THROUGH THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EXCEPT UPR 60S TO LWR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS OF 06Z...TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG (ISOLATED SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN COLDEST LOCATIONS BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT TAF SITES). A BIT MORE WIND BY THIS AFTERNOON THAN PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SW. OUTLOOK: SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO TUE...DRY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH S/SW WINDS. BY TUE EVENING/NIGHT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KSBY...AND A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENLY SHIFT TO THE E/NE THU WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .MARINE... SEAS NOW DOWN TO 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO WED MORNING. THIS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FROM ERN NC TO SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NC COAST. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DUE LIMITED MIXING (VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS). THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT ON TUE...THEN INCREASES TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE FRONT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WED AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO THE E/NE. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASE IN SEAS FOR LATER THU INTO FRI...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE SRN WATERS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LKB/DAP MARINE...LKB/TMG

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