Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 031412 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1012 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CRNT FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS. A PLEASANT AFTRN AHEAD UNDER MSTLY SUNNY SKIES / LIGHT W WINDS. BUMPED UP HIGH TMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF SOME 12Z DATA. PVS DSCN: SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN CONUS FROM WRN NY/PA DOWN TO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY... RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND IN THE LOW-MID 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST (EXCEPT ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S DUE TO SOUTH WINDS). FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS STRADDLES THE ERN US COASTLINE AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SWLY BUT LIGHT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST (OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY BUT FLATTENS OUT IN THE PROCESS...KEEPING A MORE DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A RELATIVELY FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN VA/DELMARVA AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFTING MECHANISMS AND MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING (MAINLY ACROSS THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE). IF THERE IS ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY PRESENT...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MON/TUE 80-85...MID- UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS MON/TUE NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED MORNG... MAINTAINING DRY WX. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY POSSIBLY DROP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER WED THRU THU. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN AND WRN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU NGT THRU SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LO PRES SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVR SRN COUNTIES THU NGT THRU FRI NGT...THEN A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR MOST OF THE AREA ON SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE REGION AS OF 11Z...WINDS GENLY CALM OR LIGHT S/SW. FOG HAS BEEN MINIMAL...AND HAS NOT AFFECTED TAF SITES. A LIGHT W TO SW FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEAK SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE TO WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE AT THE COAST IN THE AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST WINDS TURNING NE AT KORF (SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT ALL AREAS). LIGHT S/SW FLOW AGAIN. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. S/SW FLOW MON/TUE WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SUNDAY BUT SPEEDS STILL ONLY AROUND 10 KT WITH AFTN GUSTS TO 15 KT. A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS AT KSBY TUE NIGHT...AND FOR ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. && .MARINE...
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AS OF 10 AM...THE SCA FOR THE SRN VA WATERS WAS DROPPED ON SCHEDULE BUT THE SCA FOR THE NC WATERS WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM. AS OF 7 AM...SEAS REMAIN 5-6 FT ACRS NC COASTAL WATERS...STILL HOVERING NEAR 5 FT AT BUOY 44009 BUT NEARSHORE SEAS AT OCEAN CITY ARE DOWN TO 3 FT. HAVE ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH 10AM FOR SRN VA WATERS AND EXTENDED THOUGH 1 PM FOR NC WATERS. ALL OF THIS IS SWELL AS WINDS ARE NOW OFFSHORE FROM THE W/SW AT AROUND 10 KT. OTHER THAN SEAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT DUE TO SWELL...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WED...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN BECOMES ANCHORED ALONG/JUST OFF THE NC AND SE VA COAST MON-WED. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS). FROM MON-WED SEAS LOOK TO AVG 2-4 FT WHILE WAVES IN THE BAY GENLY 1-2 FT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWER AT BRINGING THAT SFC LOW NORTHWARD SO ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS PROBABLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRI/SAT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB/LSA MARINE...LKB/LSA

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