Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261424 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1024 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NC COAST...WITH RADAR REVEALING DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACRS THE REGION. COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW SLIDING OFF THE COAST AND TRENDS UPSTREAM SUPPORT LOWERING POPS A BIT FASTER. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL/60-90% POPS THROUGH 15Z/11 AM...TAPERING TO ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE THEREAFTER FROM NNW TO SSE (KEEPING LOW END LIKELY POPS THROUGH 18Z OVER NE NC). TWD LT AFTN/EVE...PARTIAL CLRG PSBL...ESP ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA. NE WNDS BECOME N THIS AFTN...GUSTY NR THE CST. TEMPS TO BE SLO TO RISE THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN...REACHING LT DAY HIGHS MNLY IN THE M/U50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC THIS EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD TNGT OVR THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE M60S ELSW. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE W/ INCREASED AMTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS MNLY INTO THE M/U60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY NEXT SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 14Z...RAIN WAS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAIN. SOME UPSTREAM LOCATIONS HAVE IFR CIGS AND WILL KEEP IFR IN MOST OF THE TAFS INTO MIDDAY. WINDS AT ORF WERE BRINGING MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WHICH WAS KEEPING RH LOWER. REMOVED IFR OUT OF THE TAF THERE. OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON INTO WED MORN...AS HI PRES BUILDS IN FM THE NW. THERE IS A CHC FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW PULLS OUT OF THE SW STATES. && .MARINE... ONE LO PRES AREA WAS OFF THE NC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WHILE ANOTHER LO WAS MOVNG INTO WNW NC. NNE WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WILL OCCUR OVR MOST OF THE WTRS DURING TODAY...AS THE SECOND LO DROPS SSE INTO SC WHILE THE INITIAL LO MOVES FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLC CST. MAINTAINED SCA`S OVR THE SRN TWO CHES BAY ZNS...THE CURRITUCK SND...AND THE SRN TWO CSTL ZNS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTN...THRU THIS EVENG...OR THRU LATE TNGT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT...BEFORE POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN MON INTO TUE AFTN...DUE TO LO PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG/LSA MARINE...TMG

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