Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260203 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1003 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS VA AND MD TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER SRN NC. THE BAND OF RAIN HAS BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING ENE THIS EVENING AND IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA. SHOULD SEE THIS BAND EXIT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AROUND 6Z. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER WRN KY WILL SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH SRN VA BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EMBEDDED WITH THE SHOWERS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND MATCH THE PCPN MOVEMENT. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED READINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NRLY/NERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD AND WITH THE RAIN ADDING TO ENHANCE THE COOLING. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE CAROLINAS...EXPECT READINGS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG/OFF THE DE/MD/ERN VA COAST...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE MO. ALOFT...AND UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL IL. WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. DREARY COOL DAY PREVAILS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REGION THUS FAR AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE GENLY BEEN BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.20" SINCE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN VA WHERE THE AXIS OF "HEAVIEST" RAIN HAS OCCURRED. FARTHER NORTH DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS HAS KEPT PRECIP FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS...AND PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE FAR SOUTH HAS BEEN MORE LIMITED. FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER IL LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BECOME ENGULFED BY THE UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN 70-90% POPS INTO EARLY EVENING ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...SHIFTING TO THE COAST AND ERN SHORE THROUGH LATE EVENING HRS. DOES LOOK LIKE COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY AM HRS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WHILE THE COASTAL SFC LOW TAKES TIME TO DEVELOP (AND UPSTREAM SFC LOW WEAKENS OVER KY). HAVE THEN RAMPED POPS BACK TO LIKELY/CAT AFTER 08Z AS NEXT SHORTWAVE AND BETTER LIFT RETURN. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING HEAVY RAIN...GENLY QPF AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL AVG 0.25" TO 0.50". TEMPS DROP OFF ONLY SLIGHTLY FOR LOWS TONIGHT...LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 40 F/LOWER 40S IN MD ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK (WHERE SFC DEW PTS ARE INITIALLY LOWER AND COLUMN COOLING WILL PREVAIL)...TO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH. ON SUNDAY...LOW LVL WEDGE TO RMN IN PLACE OVR THE FA AS ONSHORE WNDS...CLDS AND PDS OF RA CONTG THROUGH SUN MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE SE INTO SUN AFTN. POPS TO BEGIN LWRG SUN AFT FM NNW TO SE AS WNDS SHIFT TO N AS LO PRES DEPARTS CST. HI TEMPS SUN IN THE M/U50S S TO AROUND 60 F N (STAYED BELOW MOS). && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... RA TO END ACRS SE VA/NE NC SUN EVE. PARTIAL CLRG XPCD SUN NGT OVR THE FA. BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDING FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE LAKES WILL RMN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES ON MON BRINGS VRB CLDS AND LO POPS - ESP N AND E LOCATIONS (ALG W/ CONTD COOL CONDS). LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS MON IN THE L60S NE TO THE MID 60S ELSEWHERE. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MON NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUE WITH INCREASING AMTS OF SUN...HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR DRY WX THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THEN...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF) BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE COAST LATE WED/WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WED...THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS NORTH AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON THURSDAY (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WED/THU...EXCEPT UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COAST EASTERN SHORE. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S INLAND BY NEXT SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... POCKETS OF LGT/MOD RAIN ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA AS OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER KY WILL SWING THROUGH VA/NC OVERNIGHT...THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING. CONDS IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM N TO S ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SLIDE OFF TO THE S/SE. OUTLOOK...DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING WHICH CONTINUE THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVE WITH LIGHT S-SE WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING AROUND TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY SKIRTS OUT TO SEA OFF THE NC COAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 10-15 KT NORTH AND 15-20 KT SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO BACKS MORE TO THE NE-N. A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER CHES BAY OVERNIGHT THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND FROM LATE SUN MORN THRU SUN EVE. WAVES BUILD TO 3 FT ACROSS THE LOWER BAY. NE WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT ALONG THE NORTHERN OBX WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT AS WELL. THEREFORE...AN SCA FOR ANZ658 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A BRIEF TIME SUN AFTN/EVE. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN NIGHT...BEFORE POSSIBLY RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ESS LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...DAP/LSA MARINE...JDM

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