Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 240750 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 350 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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DRY WX FOR TDA AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. SOME CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNG ACROSS N/NE AREAS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE DAY WILL PREDOMINATELY BE SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATES FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. NOT AS COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S N TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH. INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE LOCALES COULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEAMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS SAT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LOCATES OVER THE OH VALLEY. INCREASING/AMPLIFYING FLOW OVER THE SE CONUS WILL LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES NWD AS A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE ALSO RETURNS IN EARNEST LATE SAT...COINCIDING WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL/ERN VA SAT AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT CHANCE OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE. BETTER LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING FROM THE GULF STATES SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT AS THE ORIGINAL LOW WEAKENS OVER THE OH VALLEY. A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS...WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THRU SUN MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL THEN TRANSFER TO THE COAST (ERN VA/NE NC) SUN AFTERNOON. LIFT IS RATHER MODEST...ALONG WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH). COOL/DAMP/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S (-1 TO -1.5 STD DEV) SAT AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SAT NIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM ERN NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN PLACE ACRS THE SW CONUS. OVERALL...THIS SOMEWHAT "BLOCKY" PATTERN WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST FEATURE...AND GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH/UPPER LOW ON MON. LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SUN NIGHT/MON SO A DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE. TEMPERATURES MON LOOK TO REMAIN COOLER THAN AVG WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AFTER AM LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 F. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE AS THIS AREA WILL BE NE OF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE. SKIES AVG PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS...TRENDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NE. AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTS NE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS LATER TUE/WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. MID ATLC REGION LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUE INTO EARLY WED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY /MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMAINING COOL WITH HIGHS GENLY REMAINING IN THE 60S...PERHAPS ONLY THE UPPER 50S AT THE ATLC COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. EXPECT INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT LATER WED INTO THU...BRINGING OVERRUNNING AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING LATER WED AND LASTING INTO THU. GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A COASTAL SFC LOW BY THU. HAVE POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE FROM LATER WED THROUGH THU ALTHOUGH STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS LATE DAY6/DAY 7. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE 50S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY/VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW. GUSTY WINDS (TO MNLY 20-25 KT...A BIT HIGHER PSBL INVOF KSBY) AGAIN INTO MID/LT THIS AFTN. DIMINISHING WNDS FOR TNGT AND SAT WHILE BECOMING ONSHORE. GOOD CHANCE FOR LWRG CIGS/VSBYS AND RAIN LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUN THROUGH MON. && .MARINE... PD OF LO LVL CAA XPCD INTO THE LT MRNG HRS BEFORE WANING THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN NNW WNDS TO SCA (NR 20 KT ON THE BAY/SND...20 TO 25 KT ON THE MUCH OF THE OCN). HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS OVR THE WATERS THROUGH TNGT (W/ CONDS FALLING BELOW SCA SOME TIME IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE). SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TNGT THROUGH SAT W/ WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHO RIVER VALLEY AND PASSES ACROSS VA AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY BECOME NNW SUN AFTN/EVE W/ SPEEDS INCRSG TO PSBL SCA...ESP CNTRL/SRN OCN WATERS...AND NR THE LWR BAY...AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THOSE ENHANCED WNDS CONT SUN NGT BEFORE WANING EARLY NEXT WK. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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COOL DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TDA. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20-30 PCT...WITH NWLY WINDS 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE. FUELS HAVE HAD ANOTHER DAY TO DRY...BUT STILL REMAIN MARGINAL. MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE LWR MD ERN SHORE...WHERE A SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ630>634-638- 650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/SAM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...ALB/LKB/JEF MARINE...ALB/LKB FIRE WEATHER...

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