Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 312001 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AFTN SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NRN VA/WRN MD/SOUTH CENTRAL PA. BREEZY WARM DAY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM 70-75 F OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...WITH 60S PREVAILING ON THE ERN SHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VA/NE NC. SKIES ARE STILL SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LATEST SATELLITE REVEALS BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW AND GIVEN A WNW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AKQ CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. DEW PTS REMAIN VERY LOW (MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S)...SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL GENLY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN/NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHC POPS PRIOR TO THIS OVER THE FAR NORTH). SOME OF THE HIGH- RES MODEL DATA STILL DEPICTS MEASURABLE QPF ALL THE WAY INTO SRN VA/NE NC. GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE AND THAT CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM ARE SHOWING RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND S/SW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL FAVOR A DRIER FORECAST CLOSE TO THAT DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM12. WILL CONFINE LOW END LIKELY POPS TO THE MD ZONES...WITH JUST CHC/SLIGHT CHC FOR REMAINING ZONES MAINLY ALONG/N/NE OF I-64. GENLY GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST S/SW OF I-64. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25-35 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FIRE DANGER THROUGH SUNSET SO THE FIRE WX STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. CONDS DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOLER DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE MID- UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR FRI...LOOKS LIKE A LOW END CHC FOR MAINLY -RA FRI MORNING...PRIMARILY ACRS NRN ZONES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLE AS WARM AS 60 F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL. MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT DESCRIBED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW... && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA- E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE SAT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...GUSTY SW WINDS (25-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY THIS EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER NRN VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY. STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE REGION BTWN LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE FL COAST HAS RESULTED IN STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 KT. FEW GUSTS OF 30 KT OBSERVED ON ELEVATED SITES CLOSET TO LAND...WHERE 30 KT GUSTS ALSO OBSERVED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-3 FT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT NRN WATERS THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE WATER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BRIEF LULL IN SCA SPEEDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT A NW CAA SURGE EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT ALL COASTAL ZONES WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WEDS MORNING. SE SWELL MAY KEEP SEAS HOVERING AROUND 5 FT 20 NM OUT THRU WEDS MORNING...BUT SUBSIDING WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT. SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW FRI AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATER THRU THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 18 TO 25% RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THRU 6 PM. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAS LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB/SAM FIRE WEATHER...AKQ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.