Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030310 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1110 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... WK SFC HI PRES IN PLACE OVR THE RGN UNDERNEATH NWLY FLO ALOFT. ATMOS DRY AND WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NGT. OTHER THAN PATCHY CI...XPCG SKC. MAY BE PATCHY FG AFT MDNGT...ESP OVR RURAL AREAS. MOST LO TEMPS FM THE M40S- L50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... OCEAN LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD OVR THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SET UP SHOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THRU TUE. LGT AND VRBL WNDS SUN BECOMES SW MON & TUE DUE TO RETURN FLOW. THIS APPREARS TO BE A DECENT SETUP FOR DAILY SEA BREEZES TO DVLP. GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING IN PCPN CHCS TO NWRN PIEDMONT CNTYS BY LATE TUE. KEPT TUE DRY FOR NOW. A SLOW WRMG XPCTD. HIGHS SUN 75-80 XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS MON/TUE U70S-L80S XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS MON NITE 55-60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG...MAINTAINING DRY WX. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY POSSIBLY DROP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER WED THRU THU. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN AND WRN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU NGT THRU SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LO PRES SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVR SRN COUNTIES THU NGT THRU FRI NGT...THEN A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR MOST OF THE AREA ON SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NOW WELL OUT TO SEA...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN GENERALLY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LITTLE CHANGE IS INDICATED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS HAVING CALM WINDS AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE ESPECIALLY ECG AND SBY BUT WILL LET 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ADDRESS THIS. MOSTLY WEST WINDS ARE INDICATED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN TO NORTHEAST AT ORF ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTN. THE SKY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 10 PM...THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS IS VERY GRADUAL AND AVAILABLE WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SITUATION. CURRENTLY OCEAN BUOYS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE SHORE ARE RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT ALONG ALL OF OUR COASTAL ZONES. SEAS AT THE BUOY 65 NM EAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH ARE 9 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES UNTIL 4 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF THE LATE AFTN ISSUANCE...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. STILL HAVE SCA FOR THE NRN THREE CSTL WTRS UNTIL 1 AM TNGT...AND FOR THE SRN TWO CSTL WTRS UNTIL 4 AM EARLY SUN MORNG...DUE TO SEAS STILL 5 TO 6 FT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SUN INTO WED...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS). BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG/LSA

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