Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021106 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 706 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ERN HALF OF THE FA IS FINALLY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST FROM CAPE CHARLES TO OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK. NORTH WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY SLACKENS. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY BEING PULLED INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WANING THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AND/OR SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH ENERGY WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT FROM PATCHY FOG/RECENT RAINFALL TO TRIGGER SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTN. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE LAYER IS RATHER SHALLOW AS SEEN IN TIME HEIGHTS...CROSS SECTIONS... AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO WOULD ONLY EXPECT LIGHT SPRINKLES WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF/MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT STARTS TO ERODE THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON/MONDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S (LOW-MID 70S IMMEDIATE COAST) AND ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S (MID-UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S)...BECOMING 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT (LOWER 50S INLAND/MID-UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST)...AND THEN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT (UPPER 50S). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE...MAINTAINING DRY WX AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINT AT A BACKDOOR FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WED INTO THU. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN/NW COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU THRU FRI...MODELS SHOW LO PRES SPINNING OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR SRN AND WRN COUNTIES DURING FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WX AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE REGION AND N WINDS 10-15 KT PREVAIL AT THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER...GENLY 5 KT OR LESS. SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE REGION. PATCHY FOG OVER SOME INLAND AREAS...BUT GENLY HAS NOT AFFECTED TAF SITES. MAINLY DRY/VFR TODAY...A SLIGHT CHC FOR A PASSING AFTN SHOWER BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITE. MAINLY JUST EXPECTING SCT/BKN CU AT 4 TO 5K FT. SOMEWHAT GUSTY N WINDS WILL STILL BE PSBL AT KORF AND KECG THROUGH NOON...BECOMING LIGHTER AND TURNING TO THE E/NE IN THE AFTN...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH MID WEEK...NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED AFTN. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH N/NE WINDS TRENDING DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 KT MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY AND WITH NO COLD SURGE WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY THIS AFTN AND TEND TO TURN TO THE E/NE. DESPITE THE DIMINISHING WINDS...SEAS ON THE COAST ARE STILL ELEVATED TO 6-7 FT NORTH AND 7-9 FT SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S THROUGH 10 PM FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES...AND INTO EARLY AM HRS SUNDAY S OF CAPE CHARLES. ALSO KEEPING HEADLINES UP ACRS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 10 AM TO 1 PM. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SUN INTO WED...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS). BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO HIGH SEAS/ONSHORE FLOW TRAPPING WATER IN THE BAY. DEPARTURES AVG CLOSE TO 1.0 FOOT COMPARED TO ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...THESE TIDES WILL REMAIN 0.5 FT OR MORE BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS SO NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES NECESSARY. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...DEPARTURES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 0.5 FT OR LESS BY SUN NIGHT/MON. EXTENDED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NC OUTER BANKS THROUGH 7 AM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650- 652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB/LSA MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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